HSBC Global Viewpoint The Macro Brief – Tech supremacy
Oct 17, 2025
Sean McLoughlin, Senior Global Industrials Analyst at HSBC, dives deep into the impact of tech on global capital expenditure. He reveals a remarkable 24% year-over-year surge driven by AI and cloud computing. McLoughlin discusses the shift of top corporate spenders from oil and gas to tech, predicting nearly three-quarters of capex in 2025 will come from tech firms. He warns of potential power bottlenecks as rapid investments accelerate and explores the regional disparities in capex, particularly highlighting China's ongoing weaknesses.
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Tech Is Driving Global CapEx Reacceleration
- Technology capex is the primary driver of global capex re-acceleration, growing ~24% year-on-year.
- Tech (plus Amazon) accounts for roughly half of incremental capex dollars in 2025, concentrating spending sharply.
Top Spenders Skew Toward Tech
- The top spenders list shifted from oil & gas to tech, with nearly three quarters of top-spender capex by tech companies in 2025.
- Such concentrated share (around 50% of incremental dollars) is unusual compared with past sector cycles.
Hyperscalers' Commitments Keep Rising
- Hyperscalers have committed rising CapEx and capital is broadly available for AI investment.
- Public-listed capex is tracked in the report, but private capital and private credit are also flowing into AI projects.