Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: July 22nd, 2025
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Jul 22, 2025 Alexander Altmann, Global Head of Equities Tactical Strategies at Barclays, delves into the ongoing bull run in equities and anticipated performance for the second half of the year. Samuel Zief, Head of Global FX Strategy at JPMorgan, shares insights on the weakening US dollar and potential bullish cases for it. Additionally, Andrew Hollenhorst, Chief US Economist at Citi, discusses the intricacies of US inflation, labor market conditions, and the evolving Fed policy outlook. The conversation explores various market dynamics and investor sentiment influencing today's economy.
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Complacency Amid Expected Volatility
- The S&P 500 shows complacency despite expected volatility around Fed and earnings events.
- Small caps may benefit from tech democratization and a potential Fed pivot to lower rates.
Small Caps Poised for Fed Cuts Benefit
- Small caps have high variable interest rate debt and would directly benefit from Fed rate cuts.
- Positioning data shows small caps are the most shorted since the previous summer, hinting at a potential squeeze.
Retail Volume Indicates Regime Shift
- Retail investors have driven huge volumes in low-market-cap stocks, reflecting post-COVID retail euphoria.
- Their behavior might indicate a regime shift rather than just irrational exuberance.