The Grant Williams Podcast: Shifts Happen - Episode Seven FULL EPISODE
Feb 16, 2024
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The podcast discusses the acceleration of the US fiscal crisis and debt spiral, the Fed's policy mistake of not letting inflation run hot enough, and the de-dollarization of global oil markets. They explore the importance of gold in China's de-dollarization process and discuss the potential rise in gold prices. The podcast also delves into the US fiscal crisis due to high debt and deficits, and the potential consequences of rising interest rates. They explore options to address the deficit and debt issue and express gratitude for the guest's unique perspective.
China is driving the de-dollarization of global oil markets to avoid a currency crisis and economic collapse.
Gold plays a crucial role in China's strategy to manage its currency and support its economy.
The United States is facing a fiscal crisis due to excessive debt and struggles to find buyers for its treasuries.
Deep dives
The Urgency of De-Dollarization in China
China needs to de-dollarize its oil and commodity imports to avoid a currency crisis and economic collapse. They are shifting their commodity import bill from dollars to yuan to secure their economic stability. This move is driven by necessity, not because China is strong and the US is weak. De-dollarization of global oil markets is happening faster than expected, with China trading oil and gold in yuan, and other countries following suit. This shift has implications for the US fiscal crisis and the availability of treasuries due to reduced demand from countries buying commodities in non-dollar currencies.
The Rising Importance of Gold
Gold is becoming increasingly significant in the global financial landscape. With China establishing a yuan gold price and a yuan oil price, they are using gold as a tool to manage their currency and support their economy. China wants gold prices to rise in oil terms, benefiting their creditors and spurring economic growth. The East, led by China, is gaining more control over the gold market, shifting power away from Western markets in London and New York. Gold's separation from US real rates signals a sovereign debt crisis and the urgency to preserve wealth amid rising inflation and interest rates.
The US Fiscal Crisis and Debt Spiral
The United States is facing a fiscal crisis due to excessive debt and deficits. As the debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 120%, the US struggles to find price-insensitive buyers for its treasuries. Central banks, Japanese insurers, pensions, and foreign investors are not purchasing enough treasuries due to concerns about the high debt levels and the strength of the dollar. The US is relying on synthetic quantitative easing (QE) measures, such as shifting issuance and controlling the long end of the yield curve, to maintain market stability. However, this crisis is already acute and could worsen in the coming months without a significant change in economic productivity.
Central banks' increasing interest in gold
Central banks, particularly the bricks central banks, have been actively accumulating gold in recent years. This shift towards gold as a reserve asset is significant, especially considering the historical dominance of treasury bonds. Notably, Jamie Diamond, CEO of JP Morgan, becoming the second custodian on the GLD ETF in 2022 signifies a turning point in the perception of gold as an important asset. With central banks actively buying and stockpiling gold, there is a recognition that the gold market is changing and that its value is likely to rise in the future.
The weaponization of the dollar and its implications
The increasing weaponization of the dollar, especially through actions like Russian central bank forcing other central banks to reconsider their reserve policies, has significant implications. Central banks are now more aware of the potential risks of keeping their reserves tied to the dollar and the vulnerability it creates. This has led numerous central banks to explore alternatives like gold. The decreasing interest in treasury bonds by foreign central banks, alongside the rising debt and deficit levels in the United States, creates a fiscal crisis. As central banks reduce their holdings of treasuries, the deficit increases, placing pressure on the US government to find buyers at higher rates. This situation exacerbates the need for a significant devaluation of the dollar to buy time and stabilize the treasury market.
A long-overdue episode seven of Shifts Happen sees Luke Gromen return to discuss the pace at which three things are happening: the acceleration of the US fiscal crisis and debt spiral, the Fed’s policy mistake of not letting inflation run hot enough, and the de-dollarization of global oil markets.
Luke explains that China needs to de-dollarize its oil imports and commodity imports to avoid a currency crisis, which is driving the de-dollarization of global oil markets and also highlights the importance of gold in this process, as China needs gold to work in order to improve its standards of living and avoid a crisis.
Luke believes gold will continue to rise in price, and that the pace of events is accelerating towards a US fiscal crisis. He explains the US is facing a fiscal crisis due to its high debt and deficits, and the lack of price-sensitive buyers for its treasuries and that the Fed’s choice is not inflation or deflation, but rather how it wants to lose the long end of the yield curve
Plenty of food for thought here with Luke on fine form.
Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.
Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.
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