Josh Wolfe on America’s Next War and Why It Isn’t Taiwan
May 2, 2025
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This week’s guest is Josh Wolfe, co-founder of Lux Capital, who dives into the surprising dynamics of international politics and technology. He discusses the significant role of private group chats among Silicon Valley elites in shaping political decisions. Wolfe warns about emerging threats from the Sahel region and Latin America, highlighting the misconceptions surrounding Taiwan as the primary flashpoint. He debates the future of American manufacturing and the implications of friend-shoring versus reshoring, revealing a broader perspective on global power dynamics.
Influential group chats in Silicon Valley are shaping strategies around national security and technology's role in countering perceived threats from China.
The Hill and Valley Forum highlighted a significant shift toward reshoring manufacturing and integrating national security interests into tech innovations.
Geopolitical concerns are expanding beyond Taiwan to unstable regions like the Sahel and Latin America, necessitating proactive U.S. engagement.
Deep dives
The Influence of Group Chats in Silicon Valley
Group chats have become a significant force in shaping the conversations and strategies within Silicon Valley. Influential figures like Aaron Torberg and Mark Andreessen have brought together Silicon Valley leaders and important political players in private discussions. These chats are seen as a response to societal backlash against perceived 'wokeness' and cancel culture, allowing participants to voice opinions and strategize without public scrutiny. However, while these groups promote a sense of camaraderie among like-minded individuals, they may also reinforce a narrow viewpoint, limiting genuine debate about key issues.
The Shift Towards National Security and Innovation
There is a noticeable shift in Silicon Valley towards aligning technology innovation with national security interests, particularly regarding China. Events like the Hill and Valley Forum showcase a growing consensus on the importance of tech and defense working together to strengthen the U.S. position. The discussions emphasize reshoring manufacturing and increasing investment in defense technology, indicating a more proactive approach to competing with China. This convergence of the tech and defense sectors may shape future innovations by fostering a culture that prioritizes national security alongside technological advancement.
Reshoring and Economic Policy Challenges
The conversation around reshoring highlights the challenges associated with implementing tariffs and their potential impact on the economy. While there is strong support for bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., the panelists expressed concerns about the feasibility and economic implications of aggressive tariffs. The tension between promoting local production and the realities of sourcing critical materials underscores the complexity of this policy approach. Achieving a balance between boosting domestic manufacturing while maintaining access to essential resources remains a significant hurdle.
The Role of Defense Tech Investments
Investments in defense technology are gaining momentum, influenced by the consensus among investors and political figures about the necessity of enhancing American competitiveness. The emergence of startups in this space demonstrates a generational shift, as younger entrepreneurs seek impactful careers in defense instead of traditional tech. This transformation is further supported by funding and lobbying efforts aimed at evolving defense practices. The commitment from venture capital to nurture these new entrants signals a significant pivot in how defense technology is perceived and prioritized.
Future Conflicts and International Relations
Concerns about future geopolitical conflicts are focusing on regions such as the Sahel and Central America, where instability and external influences present significant risks. The discussions suggest that the U.S. must actively engage in these areas, countering the increasing influence of adversaries like Russia and China. Additionally, building stronger ties with allied nations while addressing domestic concerns about economic and military readiness will be critical. Overall, the conversations reflect a need for a comprehensive approach that balances defense capabilities with diplomacy and economic interests.
This week, we kick off by discussing Ben Smith’s bombshell post ”The group chats that changed America,” that exposed the private chats that nudged Silicon Valley’s money crowd into Trump’s orbit.
Then we hop to DC’s Hill-and-Valley Forum, where the mantra was industrial renaissance or bust. The race with China, AI’s essential energy demands, and the need to reshore American manufacturing were the talk of the forum. Fear of China loomed over the entire forum and only whispers of tariffs crossed the lips of attendees and speakers alike.
In the back half, Eric and Madeline are joined by Lux Capital’s Josh Wolfe, fresh off his on-stage appearance at the Hill and Valley Forum. Wolfe predicts two flashpoints the commentariat is ignoring: a terror-fertile Sahel and a China-courting Latin America. He spars with Eric Newcomer and Madeline Renbargner over Trump’s tariffs, friend-shoring versus reshoring, and whether founder-led startups like Anduril can out-maneuver bloated primes. If you think that the only great power game is Taiwan, Wolfe widens the aperture to central Africa and the Americas.
Timecodes
00:00 - Intro
01:10 - Silicon Valley’s Most Important Group Chats
08:18 - Hill and Valley’s “America First” Victory Lap
16:20 - Josh Wolfe on America’s Next War
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