
Festival of Dangerous Ideas John N. Friedman (2024) - The Fading Dream
Nov 24, 2025
John N. Friedman, an esteemed economist and co-Director of Opportunity Insights, discusses the alarming decline in social mobility in the US. He reveals how where you live and attend school increasingly dictates future success. Using big data, he diagnoses factors hampering children's ability to escape poverty. Friedman highlights the importance of local social capital and proposes policies to reduce segregation and invest in communities, emphasizing that equal opportunity is not just moral but economically beneficial for society.
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The Dream Of Upward Mobility Is Fading
- Intergenerational mobility in the US has fallen sharply across cohorts since the 1940s and 50s. Recent cohorts have only about a coin-flip chance of earning a higher standard of living than their parents.
Mobility Varies Block By Block
- A child's neighborhood powerfully predicts their odds of escaping poverty as an adult. Mobility varies block-by-block within cities, not just between distant regions.
Growth Doesn’t Automatically Help Poor Kids
- Economic growth alone does not deliver upward mobility for disadvantaged children. Growth often bypasses isolated communities, so local job booms don't equal better outcomes for kids in poverty.

