The Daily Brief The oil markets are in a weird place right now
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Sep 16, 2025 The podcast dives into the peculiar state of oil markets, highlighting job cuts and a slowdown in shale drilling. It explores how these changes are affecting major oil companies and the geopolitical ramifications for countries like Russia. The discussion then shifts to the influence of overproduction and OPEC Plus interventions on global trade. Additionally, the evolving role of currencies, especially the dollar and rising renminbi, is examined, alongside how geopolitical tensions are reshaping trade dynamics and invoicing practices.
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Too Much Oil, Not Enough Demand
- Global oil weakness stems from excess supply, muted demand, and geopolitics that make noise without removing barrels.
- OPEC+ cuts briefly propped prices but new producers filled the gap, pushing global output to record highs.
OPEC Cuts Let Rivals Grow
- OPEC+ production management gave other producers room to expand, eroding OPEC's market share.
- Global output hit a record 106.9 million barrels per day in August, sustaining downward pressure on prices.
Weak Demand Keeps Inventories High
- Demand growth is slowing globally, with Europe and Asia showing particular weakness in refining and transport fuels.
- Forecasts see oil demand growth under 1% per year for 2025–26, leaving inventories pressured.