The recent surge in oil prices is discussed, including the extension of voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia and coordinated cuts by Russia. The chapter also explores Chinese oil demand, the growth of petrochemicals, and the impact of a strike on LNG shipments. Updates on central bank meetings in the US and UK are also provided.
Oil prices have surged due to Saudi Arabia's extension of voluntary cuts and coordinated cuts by Russia, creating a significant deficit in the market.
Higher oil prices could lead to inflation and a potential decrease in demand growth, impacting the global economy.
Deep dives
Rise in Oil Prices and OPEC Cuts
Oil prices have been steadily rising, reaching $95 per barrel this week due to several factors. Saudi Arabia surprised the market by announcing an extension of its voluntary cuts of 1 million barrels a day through the end of the year, exceeding market expectations. Additionally, coordinated cuts by Russia further contributed to the increase in oil prices. These cuts have tightened an already tight market, resulting in a 2.7 million barrel per day deficit in the third quarter. The market is expected to remain in a deep deficit through the first half of 2024, with oil prices likely to stay in the mid-80s and possibly exceeding $90 for the time being.
Potential Consequences of Higher Oil Prices
While the intention of OPEC cuts is to support oil prices and safeguard against a weakening global economy, there are potential negative consequences. The higher oil prices could lead to increased inflation, prompting central banks to raise interest rates. Additionally, it could slow down demand growth, which is already expected to decline next year. While there hasn't been any significant decrease in demand yet, data lacks clarity. For example, Chinese oil demand has been driven by post-COVID mobility rather than purely economic factors. The impact of negative growth on oil demand remains uncertain and will be revealed in the coming months.
Long-term Outlook for Oil Demand and Petrochemicals
Long-term projections for oil demand indicate a peak around 2027, followed by a gradual decline. The International Energy Agency's scenario of an 80% decrease in oil demand by 2050 is considered unrealistic. The key factor contributing to a peak in oil demand within the next five years would be the rising sales of electric vehicles affecting passenger vehicle demand. However, sectors such as aviation and petrochemicals are expected to continue growing. Petrochemicals demand historically outpaces GDP growth due to the increasing use of plastics and lightweight materials in various industries.