The Macro Brief by HSBC Global Research cover image

The Macro Brief by HSBC Global Research

Oil's surge

Sep 22, 2023
The recent surge in oil prices is discussed, including the extension of voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia and coordinated cuts by Russia. The chapter also explores Chinese oil demand, the growth of petrochemicals, and the impact of a strike on LNG shipments. Updates on central bank meetings in the US and UK are also provided.
10:36

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Oil prices have surged due to Saudi Arabia's extension of voluntary cuts and coordinated cuts by Russia, creating a significant deficit in the market.
  • Higher oil prices could lead to inflation and a potential decrease in demand growth, impacting the global economy.

Deep dives

Rise in Oil Prices and OPEC Cuts

Oil prices have been steadily rising, reaching $95 per barrel this week due to several factors. Saudi Arabia surprised the market by announcing an extension of its voluntary cuts of 1 million barrels a day through the end of the year, exceeding market expectations. Additionally, coordinated cuts by Russia further contributed to the increase in oil prices. These cuts have tightened an already tight market, resulting in a 2.7 million barrel per day deficit in the third quarter. The market is expected to remain in a deep deficit through the first half of 2024, with oil prices likely to stay in the mid-80s and possibly exceeding $90 for the time being.

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