The hosts discuss the current state of the market, analyzing the S&P 500, market sentiment, and potential resistance levels. They also analyze gold's performance and chart patterns, as well as the low volatility in the market and its impact on crude oil. The podcast also includes an analysis on copper, uranium, commodities, US dollar, and bonds, as well as the potential breakout in the Nikkei chart. The hosts end by exchanging greetings and discussing their favorite beer and the 12 Pups of Christmas tradition.
The podcast explores the puzzle of the significant drop in 30-year interest rates despite inflation taking a dip and growth showing strength, and questions the market's influence on financial conditions via equity and bond prices.
The conundrum of short-term rates remaining high while the long end of the market experienced a significant drop is discussed, with a focus on understanding the winners and losers of these developments.
The podcast delves into the relationship between equity and bond prices and their impact on financial conditions, speculating on how the winners and losers would differ if the Fed had to cut rates to ease financial conditions.
Deep dives
The 30-year interest rates have dropped dramatically, despite short-term rates remaining high.
The listener is puzzled by the significant drop in 30-year interest rates despite inflation taking a dip and growth showing strength. They question the implications of this and wonder if the market can influence financial conditions via equity and bond prices. They also ponder the difference if the Fed has to cut rates to achieve the same easing of financial conditions.
The writer is confused about the dramatic fall in 30-year interest rates
They mention the conundrum of short-term rates remaining high while the long end of the market experienced a significant drop. They're seeking clarification on the winners and losers of these developments.
The listener wonders about the impact of Fed jawboning on financial conditions
They are curious to know how equity and bond prices affect financial conditions and whether the winners and losers would be different if the Fed had to cut rates to ease financial conditions.
Summary for Lena
Lena recaps the listener's questions about the drop in 30-year interest rates, the impact of Fed jawboning on financial conditions, and who would be the winners and losers in this scenario.
Kevin's response
Kevin acknowledges the puzzling drop in 30-year interest rates and agrees that the bond market appears to have reacted dramatically. He mentions the influence of Fed jawboning on financial conditions and the winners and losers in this scenario.
This week Patrick and Kevin are going solo, shooting the s**t, talking some charts and drinking a few beers along the way. That’s a wrap on another year! Cheers to all of our listeners, subscribers and amazing guests that we’ve had over this past year! Here’s to 2024!