Bloomberg Talks Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran Talks Rate Cuts, Inflation, Future at Fed
Jan 8, 2026
Stephen Miran, Federal Reserve Governor and former Treasury official, shares his insights on monetary policy and inflation. He forecasts a need for 150 basis points in rate cuts by 2026 to boost the labor market. Miran highlights that current inflation numbers are skewed by shelter costs and discusses the importance of accommodative policies on job growth. He also addresses potential risks, such as rising market rents affecting his projections and expresses uncertainty about his future at the Fed.
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Underlying Inflation Is Near Target
- Stephen Miran argues underlying inflation is about 2.3% once you abstract from shelter and portfolio-fee quirks.
- He sees measured shelter and asset-management fee effects as mechanically overstating current inflation.
Act To Reduce Unnecessary Unemployment
- Miran recommends cutting about 150 basis points this year to boost the labor market without reigniting inflation.
- He argues policy should be less restrictive because unemployment at 4.6% implies about a million unnecessarily unemployed people.
Shelter Is The Key Conditional Factor
- Miran's projection is conditional on shelter inflation declining as market rents pass through to measured shelter.
- He says if market rents pick up, his disinflation forecast would be invalidated and he'd revise policy plans.