Bill O’Reilly’s No Spin News and Analysis Bill's Election Prediction, Robert Cahaly's Insights on Battleground States Polling, & Is the White House Buying Votes?
Nov 1, 2024
Robert Cahaly, chief pollster at Trafalgar, joins to delve into the election's dynamics, exploring key battleground states' voter trends. He highlights shifts toward the Republican Party and discusses predictions for voter turnout. The conversation touches on the emotional stakes for candidates and the impact of demographic changes in states like Michigan and Nevada. Cahaly also reveals concerns over African-American turnout and how hidden votes may sway results, while examining the financial strategies of campaigns in this critical election.
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O'Reilly's Prediction
- Bill O'Reilly predicts Trump will win based on increased Republican voter registration in swing states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada.
- He cites data from the Wall Street Journal, showing significant shifts in voter registration numbers.
North Carolina's Ticket Splitting
- Robert Cahaly analyzes swing states, noting that despite a Democratic governor candidate losing, Trump could still win North Carolina, as seen in 2016 and 2020.
- North Carolina voters are good ticket-splitters, differentiating between governor and presidential races.
Arizona's Hidden Vote
- Cahaly discusses the "hidden Trump vote" in Arizona, highlighting voters' reluctance to express support due to fears of government or Big Tech.
- Trafalgar uses indirect polling methods to uncover this hidden vote, which could significantly impact results.