This week we discuss the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, the path to the neutral rate, and why the Fed should front-load its rate cuts. Darius and Felix also delve into why the recessionistas are wrong about the labor market, the fiscal impulse, the impact of the BOJ and China on global macro, and much more. Enjoy!

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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:41) Overview of the Economy

(02:42) Recession vs Normalization

(05:48) 25 vs 50 Bps Rate Cut

(10:17) Are We Price For Recession?

(12:50) Inflation & Front-Loading Rate Cuts

(19:43) The Recessionistas Are Wrong

(25:49) The Fiscal Impulse

(28:55) Trend of US Growth

(31:02) Permissionless Ad

(31:42) The Bank of Japan & Interest Rate Differentials

(40:31) Chinese Economy

(44:32) Asset Allocation

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

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