Technical analysis complements fundamental and macroeconomic analysis in investment decision-making.
Consider multiple signals and factors for high conviction investment ideas.
Market conditions have shifted globally, with potential inflationary pressures and changing growth dynamics.
Deep dives
Gina Martin Adams discusses the importance of technical analysis in her investment approach
Gina Martin Adams, chief equity strategist and global director of equity strategy at Bloomberg, emphasizes the significance of incorporating technical analysis into her investment process. She explains that technical analysis fills the gap left by fundamental and macroeconomic analysis, allowing her to analyze price trends and apply technical concepts to fundamental and macro data sets.
Gina Martin Adams highlights the importance of conviction levels in investment decisions
Gina Martin Adams emphasizes the importance of considering multiple signals and factors to establish high conviction investment ideas. By analyzing price trends, earnings revisions, fundamental shifts, and macroeconomic indicators, she obtains a clearer picture of market conditions and potential opportunities. She also highlights the ability of technical analysis to provide simple and reliable principles that guide investment decisions.
Gina Martin Adams discusses the 2024 market outlook
Looking ahead to 2024, Gina Martin Adams suggests that the hiking cycle is over, which removes an overhead risk from the equity market. She points out that while inflation may be temporarily contained, there are factors such as de-globalization, decarbonization, and federal government deficit spending that could contribute to future inflationary pressures. Gina also mentions the top sectors on her scorecard, including tech, communications, financials, and energy, highlighting their positive price momentum, earnings trend, and relative valuation metrics.
Shifting Market Conditions: Inflation and Bull Markets
The speaker discusses the changing market conditions, particularly in relation to inflation and the concept of bull markets. They mention that the market in 2023 did not have enough participation and energy stocks were getting obliterated throughout the year. They argue that the market conditions have shifted globally, pointing to strong gains in Europe, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and Indian equities. Additionally, they highlight the importance of considering the impact of inflation on market dynamics and trends, suggesting that the current environment differs from the previous decades. They draw parallels to the 1960s in terms of compressed business cycles, accelerating growth, and inflation volatility.
Implications of Onshoring and Changing Market Dynamics
The speaker discusses the shifting dynamics of economic growth, specifically the move away from services and the resurgence of goods production through onshoring. They indicate that the US economy is building new industries based on energy transition and manufacturing. This shift in growth dynamics may result in less dependence on trade and global markets, as companies diversify and reshore their supply chains. The speaker also highlights potential impacts on job creation, scarcity of labor, and wage considerations. They suggest that onshoring could benefit Mexico and the North to South American corridor, but note the importance of maintaining positive border relations. Additionally, they mention the potential opportunities in emerging markets, especially in countries like China, Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America.
Kick off the new year with a big picture look at the global macro backdrop for investors. In Episode 36 we are fortunate to glean insights from Gina Martin Adams, CMT, CFA who shared with us how distortions in the economy driven by the global pandemic are still playing out with bizarre consequences.
Gina Martin Adams, CMT, CFA, is the Global Head of Portfolio Strategy and Chief Equity Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, a unique research platform that provides context on markets, industries, companies, and government policy, available on the Bloomberg Professional Service at BI.
Gina provides top-down perspective on the equity market, sectors and industries with a multi-disciplined approach that utilizes fundamental, quantitative and technical analysis. She is a familiar face to many on Bloomberg News, and has been recognized for portfolio strategy, technical strategy and economics in Institutional Investors’ All-America Research survey.
Enjoy this interview with one of the top minds in global equity strategy and understand how technical analysis adds clarity to in a most unpredictable investment landscape.
Fill the Gap, hosted by David Lundgren, CMT, CFA and Tyler Wood, CMT brings veteran market analysts and money managers onto a monthly podcast.
For complete show notes of every episode, visit: https://cmtassociation.org/development/podcasts/
Give us a shout: @dlundgren3333 or https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-lundgren-cmt-cfa-63b73b/ @_TBone_Pickens or https://www.linkedin.com/in/tyler-wood-cmt-b8b0902/ @CMTAssociation or https://www.linkedin.com/company/cmtassociation
CMT Association is the global credentialing authority committed to advancing the discipline of technical analysis in the financial services industry. We serve members in over 137 countries. Our mission is to elevate investors mastery and skill in mitigating market risk and maximizing return in capital markets through a rigorous credentialing process, professional ethics, and continuous education. CMT Association formed in the late 1960s with headquarters in lower Manhattan, NY and Mumbai, India.
Learn more at: www.cmtassociation.org
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