FEAR & GREED | Business News Q+A: The Week Ahead | 15 Dec 2025
Dec 14, 2025
Stephen Koukoulas, an insightful economist known for his macroeconomic expertise, joins Michael Thompson to dissect the unusual economic landscape of 2025. They discuss the implications of three interest rate cuts amid modest growth, the unexpected inflation surge, and the shifting dynamics in the labour market with rising unemployment. Stephen also predicts future trends in house prices and consumer spending while highlighting a lean towards private-sector growth. It's a captivating look back at a tumultuous year with key indicators to watch moving forward.
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Three Cuts But Outlook Remains Fragile
- The RBA delivered three rate cuts this year because inflation fell and unemployment edged up, but growth remained only modest.
- Stephen Koukoulas warns the cutting cycle may not be finished and future data could change the outlook.
Temporary Factors Drove Recent Inflation
- Recent inflation bumps may be driven by temporary factors like unwound energy rebates and childcare subsidies.
- Koukoulas says we need another quarter or two of data to see if the inflation rise is transitory.
Prepare For Weaker Public Demand
- Expect public demand to slow as federal and state governments trim spending and repair budgets.
- Watch the May budget for specific spending changes that could dampen economic growth further.