How the Tories fell: Inside Sunak’s disastrous gamble
Aug 29, 2024
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Steve Richards, a sharp political commentator, joins author Ben Riley-Smith, who delves into the rise and fall of the Conservative Government from 2010 to 2024. They dissect Rishi Sunak's risky decision to call an early election despite poor polling, unraveling the internal turmoil within the party. Their discussion highlights the mishaps of a campaign misjudging significant national events and the chaos that ensued during leadership changes. The episode reveals the media's powerful role and the struggles within the Tory party to redefine its future.
Rishi Sunak's early election gamble stemmed from internal pressures and a belief that timely action could stave off looming crises.
The Conservative Party's instability, exacerbated by chaotic leadership dynamics and a lack of coherent long-term vision, hindered electoral success.
Deep dives
Rishi Sunak's Early Election Decision
Rishi Sunak's decision to call an early election in July 2024, despite being significantly behind in the polls, is analyzed as a multifaceted gamble influenced by various factors. Key reasons included anticipated policy challenges, party management issues, hope for favorable economic news, and fatigue within the government. The administration faced a looming threat from internal party defections and potential scandal, pushing them to act sooner to contain the fallout. Ultimately, Sunak's inner circle believed going to the public early would mitigate upcoming problems, even though this entailed risking six months of his premiership.
Challenges during the Campaign
The campaign itself was characterized by strategic missteps and missed opportunities, particularly the failure to capitalize on moments that could have shifted public perception. One pivotal incident was the decision to leave D-Day celebrations early, which appeared careless and resulted in negative media coverage. This lack of coordination between Downing Street and the campaign team illustrated a disconnect that hampered their momentum. Despite Sunak's initially optimistic outlook, the cumulative errors highlighted a growing sense of despair as nothing seemed to resonate positively with voters.
The Legacy of Boris Johnson
Boris Johnson's time as Prime Minister is scrutinized regarding the chaotic nature of his leadership and how it affected the party's stability. Although he achieved significant victories, including the decisive Brexit processes, his approach lacked a coherent long-term vision, leading to contradictions in policy that frustrated his advisers. The aftermath of the pandemic, compounded by internal and external challenges, left the government struggling to maintain focus and direction. Johnson's disregard for systemic checks alarmed many, as his administration oscillated between authoritative control and chaotic decision-making.
Historical Patterns in Tory Leadership
The structure of the Conservative Party and its leadership dynamics contribute significantly to the ongoing challenges they face, especially during leadership contests. The internal mechanism allowing for swift leadership challenges means that dissatisfaction among a small number of MPs can lead to rapid upheaval, creating a precarious environment for any leader. This contrasts sharply with the Labour Party's system, which demands a more unified front among MPs to challenge a leader. The historical context shows that recoveries for opposition parties often come from unconventional leaders emerging from outside the immediate aftermath of electoral defeats.
How did the Conservatives turn 14 years of unprecedented political power into near-extinction at the ballot box? Where did it all go so wrong? How will their era go down in history? And what made Rishi Sunak take his catastrophic electoral gamble in 2024? Steve Richards of the Rock & Roll Politics podcast talks to Ben Riley-Smith, whose new book Blue Murder: The Rise and Fall of the Conservative Government 2010-2024 charts the dramatic rise and fall of the Tories.
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Written and presented by Steve Richards. Produced by Eliza Davis Beard. Audio production by Tom Taylor. Managing Editor Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Art by James Parrett. Music by Kenny Dickinson. THE BUNKER is a Podmasters Production