Justin Bronk, a renowned air power expert and senior research fellow at RUSI, dives into the future of the RAF and modern warfare. He highlights the evolving roles of air power, ISR, and mobility in contested environments, drawing lessons from recent conflicts. The discussion critiques current military strategies while advocating for a deterrence by denial approach. Bronk also navigates the challenges of the F-35 and unveils the ambitions of the Tempest project, merging cutting-edge technology with international collaboration in the quest for air superiority.
The future of air power will prioritize airspace control in state-on-state conflicts, challenging the RAF to improve against sophisticated ground defenses.
Effective air mobility and ISR roles must adapt to the operational shifts highlighted by modern warfare, emphasizing resilience and diverse munitions needs.
Deep dives
The Future Role of Air Power
The future of air power will likely focus on high-end, state-on-state conflict, emphasizing the control of airspace. This involves traditional roles like suppressing enemy air defenses and improving capabilities to deal with ground-based missile threats. The RAF has generally succeeded in air-to-air combat, but struggles with hunting down mobile surface-to-air missile systems, which presents significant challenges in establishing air superiority. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine illustrates the difficulties of maintaining effective air power when faced with robust enemy defense capabilities.
Evolving Importance of ISR and Air Mobility
While air mobility and Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) hold value, their roles may shift as control of the air becomes the priority for states. The retirement of crucial transport capacities within the RAF, such as the C-130J, raises concerns about operational readiness, as a reduction in air mobility could undercut long-term strategic objectives. Additionally, ISR methods are changing; there's a trend towards employing uncrewed systems for persistent surveillance tasks, especially in less contested environments. However, key ISR platforms remain vulnerable in contested airspace, prompting a reevaluation of their roles in future conflicts.
Lessons from the Ukraine Conflict
The conflict in Ukraine offers valuable insights on the nature of modern warfare, particularly in understanding the limited role of air power in a state-on-state scenario. Despite expectations, traditional air power has struggled due to the dominant use of artillery and infantry, highlighting the risks of relying solely on high-tech military strategies. The experiences of both Russian and Ukrainian forces demonstrate that effective ground forces can outmaneuver technological advantages when the opposing air capabilities are compromised. This requires a reevaluation of air power dependency in the context of military operations designed to counter strong ground-based defenses.
Challenges and Opportunities for Future Air Power
The future of RAF combat readiness hinges on diversifying munitions, increasing stockpiles, and enhancing infrastructure resilience against potential strikes. Current procurement trends prioritize advanced technology, which may compromise the necessary scale of air force capabilities, making adaptation to high-intensity conflicts challenging. Developing a new, capable sixth-generation fighter like Tempest presents both potentials for modernization and risks of overstretching resources amid competing demands. Thus, an effective air power strategy must balance innovative technologies with the foundational need for a credible, operationally ready force capable of engaging in diverse combat scenarios.
What better way to end the first series of Air Power and International Security than to have Justin Bronk on the show discussing the future of air power? This is a fantastic episode in which we take a closer look at the future capabilities of the RAF, its operational readiness to meet the challenges of the future, and how air power might feature in future operating environments.
Justin is a renowned expert on all things air power. He is a senior research fellow at RUSI and has recently submitted his PhD examining the development of combat aircraft in Britain.
The Air Power and International Security Podcast will return in the Autumn with more episodes on air power, space security and cyber warfare, as well as international relations and current affairs.
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