The Milk Road Show Are Trump’s Tariffs and Immigration Moves Fueling Growth or Disaster? w/ PDS
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Jun 25, 2025 A macro investor delves into how Trump’s tariffs and immigration policies are reshaping economies and portfolios. The conversation uncovers geopolitical tensions affecting market stability and consumer behavior. Insights on rising unemployment reveal challenges in the labor market. The podcast also explores the intersection of immigration policy, AI advancements, and inflation predictions. A fascinating look at AI adoption trends shows its potential to transform investment strategies amidst economic caution.
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Oil Price Anchors Geopolitical Risk
- The price of crude oil is the key gauge to assess Middle East geopolitical risks impacting markets.
- Current stable oil prices around $65 a barrel suggest controlled tensions and manageable economic effects.
Tariffs Tighten Consumer Spending
- Trump's tariffs have created friction, primarily affecting lower-income consumers and reducing their purchasing power.
- This consumer sensitivity to inflation limits the administration's ability to further raise tariffs without dampening aggregate demand.
Labor Market Fragility and Immigration
- Labor market flows show rising difficulty for unemployed individuals to find work and weakening entry into employment from non-labor force.
- Reversals in immigration policies risk removing hundreds of thousands of legal workers, adding strain to an already fragile labor market.