Arkady Ostrovsky, Russia editor for The Economist with deep expertise in Russian politics, and Matthew Holhouse, British political correspondent focusing on the UK's landscape, explore the complexities of Russian public opinion about the war in Ukraine. They discuss the internal divisions facing Russians, who desire a return to normalcy. The conversation also shifts to the UK's political future post-2024, while analyzing challenges faced by the Labour government amid a fragmented electorate and exploring the cultural significance of nicknames.
Despite discontent with the war in Ukraine, most Russians remain loyal to Putin, navigating a complex public sentiment landscape.
The potential for sudden regime change in Russia exists as economic conditions worsen, despite current challenges for organized opposition.
Deep dives
The Complexity of Public Opinion in Russia
The current public sentiment in Russia regarding the war in Ukraine reveals a complex landscape of opinions. While there exists a vocal anti-war minority that initially protested against the conflict, the majority of the population tends to remain loyal to Putin despite their dissatisfaction with the war. Many Russians are caught in a state of cognitive dissonance, perceiving the war as morally ambiguous yet preferring to avoid confrontation with the regime. This creates a precarious environment where the majority does not take tangible actions against the government, despite harbored discontent.
The Fragile Nature of Personal Dictatorships
Personal dictatorships, like Vladimir Putin's regime, are inherently fragile and can rapidly shift from stability to chaos. Historical patterns suggest that when such a regime collapses, it doesn't usually happen gradually but rather in a sudden wave of change. The conversation highlights the possibility of uprisings or significant shifts in public opinion, particularly if economic conditions continue to deteriorate. The current dissatisfaction among the populace could create fertile ground for an alternative leader to emerge, but existing dynamics make organized opposition unlikely at this moment.
Challenges Ahead for the Labour Party in the UK
As the Labour Party enters a new term after winning a substantial majority, it faces significant challenges in maintaining its support among a fragmented electorate. With only 34% of the popular vote, the party must work to keep both the traditional support base and appeal to new voters drawn to smaller parties. This fragmentation means that addressing key issues such as the economy, healthcare, and immigration will be crucial in sustaining public confidence. Without tangible improvements, Labour risks losing ground to other rising political parties, complicating their governing strategy.
There is no simplistic split of sentiment about Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. But what most Russians want is a return to normal that now seems impossible. Our The World Ahead series continues with a look at what is to come in British politics (9:16). And the delicate business of handing out nicknames—for people and for brands (17:30).