Join Rohit Kumar, PwC’s National Tax Co-leader and former deputy chief of staff to Senator Mitch McConnell, as he dives into the implications of recent U.S. election results on tax policy. He discusses the potential for significant tax reform under a republican-controlled Congress, the challenges of achieving bipartisan support, and the forthcoming must-pass legislation in 2025. Rohit also sheds light on tariff policies, the fate of OECD’s Pillar One and Two, and what these changes could mean for international corporations navigating a complex landscape.
The Republican control of Congress following the election results suggests a strong focus on tax reform, though bipartisan support remains essential for substantial changes.
Tariff policies are expected to undergo rapid development under the new administration, particularly concerning imports from China, influencing global economic relations significantly.
Deep dives
US Election Results and Political Implications
The recent US election results have significant implications for the upcoming Congress. President Trump has been reelected, likely to lead to a Republican-controlled Senate with a 53-47 majority, and a Republican majority in the House with 218 or possibly 222 seats. These outcomes suggest that Republicans will have a strong influence over legislation, but President Trump will still need bipartisan support for many initiatives. Despite the Republican gains, fundamental checks in the system, such as requiring a 60-vote minimum in the Senate for most significant changes, will still pose challenges for broad legislative ambitions.
Tariff Policy and Multinational Businesses
Tariff policy is identified as an area where the President has more unilateral power compared to tax policy, allowing for quicker implementation. The discussion reveals concerns about potential blanket tariffs on all imports, particularly targeting China due to its perceived strategic competition with the US. Republicans are anticipated to engage in further negotiation and legislation regarding tariffs that could impact multinational businesses and the broader global economy. The complexity of tariffs, especially as a tool to influence immigration and trade relations, indicates a multifaceted approach in dealing with international economic issues.
Prospects for Corporate Tax Reforms
The podcast outlines key campaign promises by Trump regarding corporate tax reforms, particularly a reduction in the corporate tax rate which could potentially be included in budget reconciliation bills. While there is a possibility for these tax cuts to be realized in Congress, skepticism arises regarding the political will to implement them given the current state of the federal budget and national debt. The urgency surrounding expiring provisions from previous tax reforms, particularly the impacts on GILTI and FDII, will likely fuel discussions on tax policy reform. The forthcoming expiration of significant tax cuts at the end of 2025 emphasizes the need for strategic deliberation among lawmakers.
Challenges for OECD Pillar 2 Compliance
The election results pose challenges for the US in adopting and complying with the OECD's Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 tax framework. With skepticism dominating Capitol Hill regarding compliance with international tax standards, prospects for the US to ratify Pillar 1 look grim, while Pillar 2 remains contentious. Republicans appear resistant to reforms that would change existing tax frameworks to comply with international agreements, potentially leading to disparities in tax revenue collection across jurisdictions. The issue of destination-based taxes, such as digital service taxes from foreign countries, may further complicate tax negotiations and influence US multinational corporations.
Doug McHoney (PwC’s International Tax Services Global Leader) is joined by Rohit Kumar, PwC’s National Tax Co-leader and former deputy chief of staff to Senator Mitch McConnell (R) to discuss the US election results. Doug and Rohit cover what the republican-controlled House, Senate and Presidency means for tax reform, why 2025 will be a year for significant “must-pass” tax legislation, the role the federal debt and budget deficit will play, the potential implementation of tariffs, the fate of the OECD’s Pillar One and Two, as well as how the new administration could approach digital services taxes (DSTs).
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