David Kranzler: Mining Stocks Haven’t Been This Golden Since 2001
Oct 31, 2024
auto_awesome
Dave Kranzler, author and financial analyst, shares his insights on the volatile landscape of mining stocks and the economy. He raises alarms about the national debt's impact on market conditions and warns of potential economic collapse without spending cuts. Kranzler emphasizes the importance of liquidity over monetary policy and discusses the opaque nature of gold and silver holdings by central banks. He highlights investment opportunities in gold and silver, and the significant shifts in mining policy that could influence the market.
The podcast highlights the alarming national debt levels and the unsustainable government spending driving an impending economic collapse if not curtailed.
Kranzler raises concerns about the transparency and actual reserves of gold held by the Federal Reserve, hinting at risks in possession and auditing practices.
Significant potential for silver investments is discussed, with predictions of rising prices due to central bank purchases and favorable market conditions.
Deep dives
The Reality of National Debt and Economic Recession
The discussion emphasizes the unsustainable nature of national debt and its implications for the economy, highlighting that government spending has propped up a recessionary economy. It states that significant military spending and government handouts are the main drivers keeping the economy afloat, with warnings that slowing these expenditures could lead to economic collapse. The current spending deficit, reported at $389 billion recently, is alarmingly high and forebodes a fiscal year-end with over $1.8 trillion in deficit. The conversation underscores the precariousness of the fractional banking system, suggesting it functions like a Ponzi scheme requiring continuous credit injection.
Gold's Rising Importance Among Central Banks
The central banks of Eastern Hemisphere countries are increasing their gold reserves significantly, indicating a shift away from reliance on the US dollar. It is observed that these banks are not just buying gold but are also taking physical possession of it, marking gold's status as the second-largest reserve asset among central banks. The historical context of the Fed's gold possession, including concerns about its audits and authenticity, is also examined, suggesting potential risks surrounding actual possession and availability of gold reserves. This trend potentially hints at a broader move to re-establish a gold-backed monetary system in the face of mounting dollar-based risks.
The Complex Dynamics of Market Liquidity
Liquidity is presented as a crucial factor maintaining market functionality despite broader economic problems, such as a sagging economy without corresponding stock market reflections. The Federal Reserve's actions, including purported quantitative tightening and growing M2 money supply, are analyzed to illustrate ongoing liquidity influx even during attempts to control monetary policy. The draining of over $2 trillion from the reverse repo facility is noted as a method of recycling capital back into the system. Analysts argue that as the economy struggles, this liquidity serves to artificially support stocks despite poor corporate earnings growth.
Potential Surge for Silver Amid Market Dynamics
Silver is characterized as having considerable upside potential, driven by various market factors including technical chart formations and increased purchases by central banks like Russia. There's a belief that rising silver prices could outpace historical peaks as more retail investors view silver as a viable alternative to gold. The likelihood of significant price moves is suggested to occur should silver exceed certain technical thresholds, with predictions of it potentially reaching $50 per ounce if trends persist. This burgeoning interest could prompt more public engagement in silver, mirroring the historical trends of seeking affordable investment avenues.
Strategic Approaches to Mining Investments
Investing in mining stocks is portrayed as multifaceted, with significant emphasis on jurisdictional, management, and geological risks in junior and small-cap mining companies. The discussion details optimal strategies like identifying companies with strong project management, while cautioning against those heavily reliant on share issuance for capital. It emphasizes the rising M&A activity within the mining sector as gold and silver prices rise, suggesting that investors should focus on quality over potential acquisitions. The episode conveys a sense that thorough research and careful selection are key to capitalizing on undervalued opportunities in the current mining market.
Tom Bodrovics your host welcomes back Dave Kranzler from Investment Research Dynamics. Kranzler discusses the impact of the upcoming election on national debt and market conditions, expressing concern over the mounting deficit and lack of government spending reductions. He highlights the importance of military spending, handouts, and domestic spending in keeping the economy afloat, but warns of potential economic collapse without significant spending cuts.
Kranzler expresses concerns about the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve's gold holdings. He questions their true possession of reported reserves and lack of audits.
Kranzler believes that liquidity, not monetary policy, is the crucial factor keeping markets and banks functioning in today's hyper-financialized economy. Despite the Fed's reduction in its balance sheet and hawkish monetary policy, M2 has continued to grow, and over $2 trillion has been drained from the reverse repo facility to finance the treasury deficit and prop up sagging markets.
Kranzler expresses his belief that gold's price in dollars is setting up a favorable position and silver's cup-and-handle formation and industrial usage make it an attractive investment opportunity. He also shares his concerns about banks' actual silver positions, the opacity surrounding these positions, and potential consequences if hedge funds request delivery of actual bars from the COMEX market.
Kranzler discusses the importance of understanding the production deficit in the silver market and investing in pure silver plays. He emphasizes that all stock purchases involve risk but is currently watching closely mid-tier producers.
Kranzler also discusses the role of confidentiality agreements and feasibility studies in attracting larger companies to junior mining projects. He encourages investors to focus on a few stocks they believe in and learn how to analyze these stocks for potential returns.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Election & Market Effects3:24 - Implosion Inevitable4:20 - U.S. Gold Audits & Fed11:57 - Liquidity & Banks16:09 - Fed's Next Move?20:36 - Precious Metals Outlook28:38 - Silver Production Deficit33:26 - Mexico & Mining?36:34 - Silver Miners?43:05 - Silver Speculation?44:44 - Eric Sprott47:07 - M&A Targets?50:23 - Feasibility Studies?55:10 - Streaming Agreements56:34 - Finding Value in Miners1:01:02 - Risks & Considerations1:05:39 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
David's insights on the current state and future trends of the precious metals market.
Kranzler expresses concern over mounting national debt and potential economic collapse without spending cuts.
The role of royalties and streams in funding mining projects, and the pros and cons.
Kranzler's advice to investors regarding focusing on a few stocks and analyzing them thoroughly.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/InvResDynamicsWebsite: https://investmentresearchdynamics.comNewsletter: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/mining-stock-journal
David Kranzler spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, he traded junk bonds for Bankers Trust. Dave earned a master's degree in business administration from the University of Chicago, concentrating on accounting and finance. He writes a blog to help people understand and analyze what is going on in our financial system and economy.
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode