EUVC E578 | EUVC Summit 2025 | David Clarke, (VenCap), Ertan Can (Multiple Capital) & Chloe Dagnell (Isomer Capital): The Path to Superior Venture Returns in Europe
At EUVC Summit 2025, one of the most animated sessions wasn’t about regulation or returns—it was about size.
Fund size.
“You need to back small, early, and smart.”
— Chloé
While some claimed that fund size isn’t predictive of returns, this panel pushed back with a powerful rebuttal: in early-stage venture, size absolutely matters—and skin in the game matters even more.
Chloé laid out the logic:
The earlier you invest, the lower the probability of hitting a mega outcome
But the smaller your fund, the greater your exposure to uncapped upside
“No one thought a $100M fund was too large in the early 2000s. But back then, a $1B exit was 99th percentile. Today? That’s just 85th. A $20B exit is the new 99th percentile.”
In short: outcomes have scaled dramatically—but fund sizes have ballooned even faster.
If you want real multiples, you can’t rely on average returns. You need asymmetric upside.
“Average venture-backed exit valuation? Still around $100M.”
That stat alone makes a strong case for micro-funds.
→ A $5B mega fund might get you into elite cap tables—but you’re unlikely to 10x
→ A $30–50M fund? One breakout and you’re a rocketship
And the panel made it clear: LPs chasing “safe” strategies may be missing the real alpha generators.
The panel also poked fun at outdated VC modeling tools:
“Can we finally stop using the Page & Associates PDF?”
(Amen.)
This wasn’t just a critique of stale math—it was a call for more creative, conviction-led underwriting in a world where category winners look radically different than they did two decades ago.
“We’re not looking for averagely good returns. We’re backing for uncapped upside.”
That’s the ethos driving many LPs toward emerging managers and micro funds.
Not to mention the sense of alignment, focus, and nimbleness that often fades in billion-dollar vehicles.
This panel had heat—and it wasn’t done.
“Happy to do this again. On a podcast. Longer. Louder.”
Count us in.
The Case for Small Funds: Math, Mindset, and MultiplesThe Uncomfortable Truth: Most VC Exits Are Still SmallPage & Associates: Retire the TemplateFund Size Isn’t Just Capital—It’s PhilosophyComing Soon… A Podcast Debate?