Milk Road Macro Why The Housing Market Is Headed For Another Crisis w/ Melody Wright
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Sep 23, 2025 Melody Wright, a housing market analyst and commentator known for her insights during the Great Financial Crisis, shares alarming truths about today's market. She argues the 2008 crisis never ended, highlighting the disconnect between high home prices and affordability. Melody discusses the impact of investor dominance on sales, the misallocation of inventory amidst population growth, and the looming risks of foreclosures. With a skeptical view on current market stability, she warns listeners about the unsustainable nature of housing as an investment.
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Affordability, Not Rates, Is The Core Problem
- Housing weakness since 2023 reflects extreme unaffordability, not just rates.
- Institutional investors and government programs propped prices and displaced first-time buyers.
Existing Homes Traded Above New Builds
- Existing home prices rose above new-builds because investors bid aggressively for resale stock.
- This flipped the normal pricing relationship and masked affordability problems.
Short-Term Rental Towns As Early Warnings
- Melody crowdsourced a list of 85 towns heavy in short-term rentals to spot early distress.
- Markets like Austin and Nashville signaled the speculative turn first with excess Airbnbs.