America's Industrial Strategy for the Energy Transition
Sep 19, 2023
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Investment is rising in America's clean energy sector, bringing challenges of implementing the Inflation Reduction Act and sustaining support for the energy transition. The guest discusses the creation of the Clean Energy Investment Monitor, the growth in clean energy investment, and its impact on manufacturing. They explore challenges in wind energy, geographic distribution of investments, scaling clean energy, and the role of industrial strategy. The need for congressional action on climate finance, economic interests, and national security is also addressed.
Clean energy investment in the American economy has reached $213 billion in the past year, with significant growth seen in clean energy manufacturing, retail investment, and economic geography.
The surge in clean energy investment is driven by rationales such as taxpayer subsidies, building supply chain resilience, and national security considerations, aiming to ensure control, diversity, and reduced vulnerability.
Challenges in implementing clean energy investment policies include declining wind investment, the need to monitor investment alignment with long-term goals, and the importance of balancing resilience, cost efficiency, and equitable economic development.
Deep dives
The Growth of Clean Energy Investment in the American Economy
According to the Clean Investment Monitor, clean energy investment in the American economy has increased significantly, reaching $213 billion in new investment over the past year, a 37% increase compared to the previous year. This growth in investment is benefiting various sectors, with the most significant and rapid growth observed in clean energy manufacturing, driven by the electric vehicle industry, battery manufacturing, and electric vehicle assembly. Retail investment in clean energy has also seen growth, particularly in electric vehicles, heat pumps, and distributed energy such as rooftop solar. The data also highlights the economic geography of these investments, with the emergence of energy investment belts in different regions, including a battery belt from Michigan to the southeast and a hydrogen and carbon capture belt along the Gulf Coast. However, wind investment has been declining over the past eight quarters. This investment growth is contributing to changing the economic geography of the country, with investments in lower-income communities and areas that have traditionally felt left behind in prior economic expansions. Overall, the data underscores the need for a national economic strategy that leverages public investment and other policy tools to drive private investment in areas where the private sector is less likely to invest on its own.
The Rationale for Clean Energy Investment Policies
The surge in clean energy investment is driven by various rationales. Firstly, there is an emphasis on the use of taxpayer dollars to subsidize activity in the United States. This rationale advocates for using explicit taxpayer-funded incentives to benefit the American economy. Secondly, there is a focus on building resilience in supply chains and decreasing dependence on specific suppliers or components. This approach aims to address economic security concerns and prevent shocks to the system during times of crisis. Lastly, there are national security considerations, particularly when it comes to critical minerals and components that support clean energy technologies. These rationales justify policies that encourage investment in the United States to ensure greater control, supply chain diversity, and reduced vulnerability to disruptions. While these policies may result in higher costs, they aim to secure reliable access to components and promote long-term cost efficiency.
Challenges and Considerations for Clean Energy Investments
Implementing clean energy investment policies comes with various challenges and considerations. One challenge is the declining wind investment, mainly due to increased interest rates and interconnect bottlenecks. Efforts are needed to address these challenges and support wind projects at the project and policy levels. Additionally, there is a need to monitor the distinction between announcements and tangible investments, as projects may face delays or changes over time. It is crucial to assess how investments align with long-term clean energy goals and the timeline for investment realization. Another consideration is the changing economic geography resulting from clean energy investments. The data suggests that investments are benefiting lower-income communities and contributing to economic opportunities in areas that have felt left behind in previous economic expansions. This not only has political implications but also provides an opportunity to address regional disparities and foster inclusive growth. Overall, balancing resilience, cost efficiency, and equitable economic development will be key in shaping future clean energy investments.
Challenges to Scaling Clean Energy Investment
One of the challenges to scaling clean energy investment is the need for electrifying transport, particularly battery manufacturing. The recent strike by auto workers, demanding unionized labor for EV component manufacturing, highlights the complexity of the issue. The strike, involving major automakers like Ford, GM, and Stellantis, and the new stand-up strike tactic employed, adds uncertainty to the economic impact. While the focus is often on the transition to electric vehicles, it is crucial not to overlook the wage stagnation experienced by UAW workers over the years, which has led to a stronger labor market and increased leverage for workers.
The Importance of an Ambitious Industrial Strategy
Industrial strategy encompasses using public investment and policy tools to crowd in private investment and build productive capacity where the private sector is underinvesting. The Inflation Reduction Act, along with other legislation, constitutes a comprehensive strategy for long-term public investment in infrastructure, innovation, and clean energy. To drive the clean energy transition forward, there needs to be a focus on improving utility markets, interconnections, and developing a global system for efficiently transferring and deploying clean technologies, particularly in large emitting emerging market economies. In addition to congressional action, leveraging existing tools such as US development finance and scaling World Bank capacity are essential to achieve meaningful progress.
Investment is rising in America’s clean energy sector. According to the Clean Investment Monitor, a joint project of the Rhodium Group and MIT, the sector received $213 billion in new investment over the past year, a 37% increase over the previous year.
This new investment brings new challenges, such as implementing the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), translating money into infrastructure, sustaining support for the energy transition, and fending off economic competition from abroad.
How is the surge of clean energy investment changing the American economy? What sectors and regions are benefitting the most? And what is still needed to get the U.S.on track to meet its climate goals?
This week host Jason Bordoff talks with Brian Deese about IRA implementation, green industrial strategy, and national security.
Brian was the director of the White House’s National Economic Council from 2021 to 2023. Prior to that, he served in the Office of Management and Budget and as a senior advisor to President Barack Obama, as well as global head of sustainable investing for BlackRock. Since leaving government, he has taken up a post as Institute Innovation Fellow at MIT, where he plays a key role in developing the Clean Investment Monitor.
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