Subject to Change World War I: The surprising victory of 1918
Jan 5, 2026
David Stevenson, a renowned British historian specializing in World War I, delves into the unexpected end of the conflict in 1918. He examines why the war lasted so long and unveils the surprising factors that led to Germany's surrender. With a fresh perspective, Stevenson discusses the impact of Bulgaria's collapse, the strategic mistakes of German commanders, and the crucial entry of the U.S. Ultimately, he explores how shifting alliances and internal revolutions shaped the war's conclusion, revealing the complexity behind a seemingly obvious historical moment.
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Why The War Lasted So Long
- Expectations shifted from a 'short-war illusion' in 1914 to a 'long-war' mindset by 1917, surprising many when 1918 ended quickly.
- Military, diplomatic, and domestic political stalemates reinforced each other and prolonged the conflict.
The Triple Stalemate Trap
- Stevenson frames WWI as a triple stalemate: military, diplomatic, and domestic political deadlock.
- Each stalemate amplified the others, trapping leaders who could not plausibly accept compromise.
The Eastern Window Of Opportunity
- Russia's exit and Brest-Litovsk freed about 40 German divisions to move west, creating a short 'window of opportunity.'
- The arrival of American forces then closed that window before Germany could secure a decisive victory.
