TBPN Thursday's Diet TBPN
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Nov 14, 2025 Get ready for a whirlwind discussion on rising tech debt and its potential risks compared to past crises. Delve into the debate on whether data truly is the new oil and how to refine it into valuable insights. The hosts dissect Meta's massive financing deal for its new data center and the evolving role of private credit in the AI landscape. They also explore the saturation of the AI market, the state of large language models, and future breakthroughs in AI. Plus, insights into the revival of Vine and the intriguing timing of Michael Burry's fund shutdown.
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AI Buildout Looks More Like Oil Industry
- Tech debt is becoming systemic as AI infrastructure borrowing mirrors capital-intensive industries like oil and gas.
- Large GPU and data-center financings introduce macro risk unlike past equity-only startup failures.
GPUs Are Unpredictable Collateral
- GPUs and data centers are harder to lend against than oil because future value and depreciation are uncertain.
- That uncertainty raises lending risk as infrastructure becomes GPU-heavy rather than predictable extractive assets.
Meta's Hyperion Was Prepaid By Private Credit
- John recounts Meta announcing a five-gigawatt data center and getting paid upfront by private credit firms.
- Blue Owl financed Meta's Hyperion deal, giving Meta $3 billion up front while funding the buildout risk externally.