Calculated Risk-Prepping for Midway, with special guest Jon Parshall

Oct 18, 2022

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Talking Points:

Japanese Plans
Because of the Doolittle Raid and the CV raids of Feb and March, what are the Japanese thinking at this time?
What is Yamamoto’s conceived plan for the Midway Operation?
What is the reasoning behind the plan…the ultimate goal
Why is the plan so complex and so reliant on timing
Literally everything had to go exactly according to plan for the Japanese plan to work as Yamamoto had it in his head
Do you think that at this time the Japanese had brushed off the US as a second or even third-rate adversary?
Was there a situational arrogance on the part of the Japanese?
Why? Why not?
Aside from Shokaku and Zuikaku not being able to take part in Midway, did Coral Sea and the efforts of the US CV pilots not kick off a light bulb in the collective Japanese heads in regard to the USN Nav Av prowess and abilities?

Code Breaking
We have already done an episode on HYPO, but this period is really where they shine…
Intel effects on Coral Sea
“AF” and HYPO’s role in figuring out the target is indeed Midway
Let’s talk briefly on the whole AF water condenser myth, the reality, of course, was to convince DC, not the Japanese.
King is barely convinced and allows Nimitz to do what he needs/wants to do

US Preparations for battle
Nimitz throws everything but the kitchen sink at Midway
What units are on Midway
What forces does Nimitz send to Midway?
Nimitz pays the atoll a visit before the battle
While Midway’s defenses are, on paper, strong…are they really?
Why not?
What are the aces up Nimitz’s sleeve?
CV6, CV5, and CV8
Talk about the combat experience of Enterprise Air Group, Yorktown Air Group and Hornet Air Group
Who are the CAGs for each AG?
McClusky
Leslie
Ring
One of Nimitz’s Aces, CV5, is damaged…
The 72 hour repair myth

Japanese Preparations for battle
What forces do the Japanese plan to send to the fight?
Who are the aviators aboard the CVs?
Just how good are these people?
Japanese attack on the Aleutians
The myth is that this was supposed to be a diversion…
Of course it was not…but what exactly was it and why was it executed at this time?
What were the goals of the Aleutians Op?

US Plans for the Ambush
What does the intel from HYPO and Layton tell Nimitz?
What does he want to do?
Point Luck
How will he and the US CVs go about ambushing Kido Butai?
Midway’s role…
The US CVs depart Pearl…
Before CV6 leaves, Nimitz attends an awards ceremony on May 27 aboard The Big E. He hands out decorations for Pearl Harbor and the carrier raids
In handing a DFC to VF-6 pilot Roger Mehle, Nimitz tells him “I think you’ll have a chance to win yourself another medal in the next several days.”
That very day, May 27, Nimitz executed OpPlan 29-42 which declared a state of “Fleet opposed Invasion”
Nimitz’s OpPlan was devastatingly accurate
A testament to HYPO and Layton’s diligence