Bloomberg Surveillance: Bumpy Path Down for Inflation
Dec 12, 2023
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Dana Peterson predicts consumer spending to decrease with rising core prices. Alicia Levine believes the Fed won't cut rates until late 2024. Lindsey Piegza worries about insufficient tightening leading to entrenched inflation. Christyan Malek expects global oil markets to tighten soon.
Consumers may pull back on spending due to rising core prices in November.
The Fed is not expected to cut rates until the second half of 2024, according to Alicia Levine.
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Consumer Spending and Inflation Concerns
Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board, discusses the relationship between inflation and consumer spending. Despite rising real wages, consumers are still concerned about inflation and feel that prices are increasing. The impact of rising insurance costs and wages, as well as the perception of inflation, may lead to a decrease in consumer spending. Additionally, inflation measures need to be closely monitored, and the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts should be considered cautiously.
Inflation Trends and the Role of Fed
Dana Peterson highlights the economic factors influencing inflation trends and the role the Federal Reserve plays. Slowing inflation is expected, but there are factors like wage growth, labor shortages, and rising insurance costs that contribute to sticky inflation measures. The Fed's interest rate decisions should reflect careful consideration of the broader economic landscape, balancing the need for stable prices while avoiding excessive rate cuts that could undermine the economy.
Dana Peterson, The Conference Board Chief Economist, expects consumers to pull back on spending as core prices ticked up in November. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Wealth Management Head of Investment Strategy and Equity Advisory Solutions, predicts the Fed won't cut rates until the second half of 2024. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says her concern is that the Fed doesn't tighten enough, and allows inflation to become further entrenched. Christyan Malek, JP Morgan Global Head of Energy Strategy and Head of EMEA Oil & Gas Equity Research, says it's only a matter of time until the global oil markets tighten. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance