The Market Is Over-Extended, Over-Bought & Over-Leveraged | Lance Roberts

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Nov 29, 2025

Lance Roberts, a savvy portfolio manager known for his technical and macro analysis, shares his insights on the current market's precarious state. He warns about the over-extended, over-bought, and over-leveraged conditions that may lead to volatility in 2026. The discussion also dives into the shifting dynamics in the AI sector, the capital rotation towards biotech and pharma, and a rally in silver prices. Lance provides updates on portfolio adjustments, emphasizing strategic rebalancing and risk management for investors.

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INSIGHT

Market Is Overextended And Vulnerable

The market is extended, overbought and highly leveraged which increases vulnerability to volatility and corrections.
A pullback to long-term moving averages (e.g., the four-year MA) is common after extended rallies.

ADVICE

Trim Overweight Winners To Rebalance

Trim positions that have become overweight from strong rallies to lock in gains and manage portfolio risk.
Reallocate proceeds into other positions that are technically stronger or underweight to rebalance tactically.

ANECDOTE

Texan Thanksgiving, Not Traditional Turkey

Lance celebrated Thanksgiving with a Texan menu of brisket, sausage and barbecue instead of a traditional turkey.
His family gathers 20–25 people and his wife alone eats turkey shipped for her preference.

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The market is over-extended, over-bought and over-leveraged warns portfolio manage Lance Roberts.That combination of conditions often results in more volatility and lower returns in the coming year, so he's looking at 2026 with a degree of caution.In this special Thanksgiving week Market Recap, we discuss his latest portfolio changes, the potential changing of the guard occurring in the AI sector, the rotation of capital into other sectors like biotech and pharma, and the breakout in silver.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#marketcorrection #volatility #silverprice _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.