Jeff Currie, Carlyle's Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways, shares insights on why copper is the highest conviction trade he's seen, discussing the demand for copper in technological advancements and challenges in its supply. He also delves into the current business cycle and shifts in commodities demand, analyzing factors like military spending and AI data centers impacting prices and potential demand destruction.
Investors see copper as a top trade due to diversified demand beyond China.
Limited global supply of copper poses long-term challenges for meeting rising demand.
Deep dives
Rising Copper Demand and Investor Confidence
Investors are displaying increased confidence in copper as a lucrative investment, recognizing that copper demand can thrive even amidst a weak property market. The surge in copper prices is attributed to investors realizing that China is not the sole driver of copper demand. Moreover, the government's investment in green infrastructure projects further boosts the appeal of copper as a valuable asset, indicating a significant shift in investor behavior compared to previous instances of market volatility.
Challenges in Copper Supply and Long-term Price Outlook
Despite the rising demand for copper, the global supply of this commodity faces significant challenges. Copper is predominantly mined in geographically restricted regions like Chile, Peru, and the DRC, necessitating substantial investments and time to bring new supply online. While demand for copper continues to surge from various sectors like AI and green technologies, the limited and slow-growing supply of copper suggests a long-term trend towards structurally higher prices, with potential implications for market dynamics and resource allocation.
Carlyle Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways Jeff Currie shares why copper has become ‘the highest conviction trade’ he’s ever seen with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney