This discussion dives into the lesser-known troubles plaguing Russia, like demographic decline and the rising mephedrone epidemic, all exacerbated by ongoing conflicts. We learn about the government's questionable family policies facing a backdrop of geopolitical tension. The conversation also reveals crumbling infrastructure's role in economic decline, spotlighting deteriorating air travel safety and railroad issues. Lastly, it critiques the state's focus on flashy projects while neglecting essential connectivity, leaving isolated communities in the lurch.
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Quick takeaways
Russia's demographic decline, primarily driven by war and emigration, indicates a looming threat to national stability and societal cohesion.
The methadrone epidemic illustrates a significant public health crisis, exposing failures in drug policy and the need for better societal support services.
Deep dives
Demographic Decline and Diversity
Russia is facing a significant demographic decline, with projections predicting a population decrease to between 74 and 112 million by 2100, down from approximately 146 million today. This decline is attributed to various factors, including low fertility rates and the impact of war, which has led to increases in mortality and emigration, especially among younger populations. The result is an aging population that is becoming more ethnically diverse, although many Russians view this diversification negatively, often leading to increased xenophobia. Despite previous warnings from President Putin about the demographic crisis, efforts to reverse these trends have been limited and largely ineffective.
Challenges of Substance Abuse
The rise of methadrone, a synthetic stimulant, has become a severe public health issue in Russia, particularly affecting younger generations. Following significant disruptions in the drug supply chain, domestic production increased, leading to a more than doubling of the annual death toll from illicit drugs since 2019, surpassing 10,000 fatalities. Methadrone is often misperceived as a safe alternative to other substances, which has contributed to a growing subculture of use, including among soldiers. The crisis illustrates not only a failure of drug policy but also broader societal issues, such as alienation and lack of support services.
Crumbling Infrastructure Development
Russia's transportation infrastructure is suffering from neglect and mismanagement, with significant portions of the population lacking access to adequate transport networks. Despite past promises of massive investment, actual progress has been stunted due to the focus on military spending and the diversion of resources following sanctions. The country's rail and road systems are deteriorating, contributing to an increase in accident rates and a decline in travel safety, as evidenced by the poor status of domestic flights and public transport. This infrastructure crisis undermines economic productivity and exacerbates regional inequalities, hampering opportunities for growth and development.
Links Between Demographics, Drugs, and Infrastructure
The interconnection of demographic decline, drug abuse, and inadequate infrastructure reveals a deeper systemic crisis in Russia. High levels of substance abuse are particularly prevalent among youth in provincial areas, where poor infrastructure limits economic opportunities and fosters a sense of disconnect from society. This feedback loop of problems highlights the failure of the government to address underlying social issues effectively. The ongoing issues not only reflect the challenges faced in the short term but also pose long-term threats to Russia’s stability and cohesion as a society.
We tend to focus on the big challenges facing Russia: war, sanctions, the struggle of authoritarianism vs the remnants of civil society. Maybe it is time to look at some of the less often discussed problems that nonetheless characterise the emerging Russian 'polycrisis': demographics, the mephedrone epidemic, and crumbling transport infrastructure: sex, drugs and rocky roads.
The OSW report on demographics I mentioned is here; the Global Initiative report on drugs is here.
My IWM podcast on Syria with Misha Glenny and Eva Konzett is here.
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