WSJ Opinion: Potomac Watch Will the Gaza Cease-Fire Hold? / China's Leverage on Rare-Earth Minerals
Oct 21, 2025
Elliot Kaufman, a keen analyst of Middle East policy, discusses the fragile Gaza cease-fire amid renewed violence and Trump's threats against Hamas. He explores how hostage releases could impact Israeli military actions and the challenges of disarmament for Hamas. Alicia Finley, an expert in economics and geopolitics, sheds light on China's rare-earth export controls and the newly signed U.S.-Australia deal aimed at countering China's influence. She emphasizes the need for multilateral cooperation to strengthen supply chains and contain mercantilism.
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Threats And Excuses To Hold A Ceasefire
- Trump's mix of threats and excuses aims to preserve the ceasefire without escalating into full war.
- That strategy can hold if violations are isolated but falters against repeated Hamas breaches.
Hostage Releases Shift Israel's Options
- Releasing living hostages dramatically increases Israel's freedom to strike without jeopardizing prisoner exchanges.
- With living hostages out, Israel faces less political pressure to restrain military responses.
Hamas Consolidation Undermines Disarmament
- Hamas is actively consolidating power and publicly purging rivals, signaling resistance to demilitarization.
- That behavior undermines the Trump 20-point plan's disarmament and stabilization phases.