Fiona Hill, a renowned expert on Russia, discusses the impact of the Middle East conflict on Russia's strategy in Ukraine and highlights the disconnect between public perception and the reality of the war. The podcast also explores the lack of coordination among world powers, Ukraine's challenges in navigating international perspectives, and the factors contributing to global enduring disorder.
Russian President Putin sees the war in the Middle East as an opportunity to undermine Western support for Ukraine.
Ukraine has faced challenges in penetrating Russian defenses but has had success in disrupting Russian dominance in the Black Sea using drone warfare.
The Wagner Group's actions have influenced the conflict in Ukraine and prompted Putin to focus on domestic issues and propaganda to sway public opinion.
Deep dives
Putin's Opportunity in the Middle East
The ongoing war in the Middle East, coupled with the conflict in Ukraine, presents an opportunity for Russian President Vladimir Putin. With the United States and European supporters potentially distracted by events in the Middle East, Putin believes it will undermine support for Ukraine and give impetus to debates about the duration and extent of support for the war. Additionally, Russia's involvement in the Middle East, particularly its relationship with Israel, has shifted due to recent events. There are concerns that Russia may have played a role in these events, which could strain relations and diminish support for Ukraine. Overall, Putin sees the current situation as a chance to turn the tide of the war in Ukraine and strengthen Russia's position.
Assessment of the War in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine, now entering its 21st month, has faced challenges and limitations in terms of progress. The much-anticipated counter-offensive by Ukraine has not achieved the desired results, as the Russian forces have entrenched themselves, creating difficulties for Ukraine to penetrate their defenses. However, Ukraine has had success in the naval area, utilizing innovative drone warfare in the Black Sea. This has disrupted Russian dominance and affected their military presence in Crimea. While the military aspects of the war are complex, politically, the situation has presented challenges for Ukraine. The high expectations and subsequent disappointment have led to questions about the duration of support and the endgame for Ukraine. The battleground for public opinion has not been favorable for Ukraine, further affecting their room for maneuver in negotiations and international support.
Wagner Group and Influence on the State of Play
The Wagner Group, a controversial Russian outfit, has had both advantages and consequences for the war in Ukraine. While it provided tactical advantages and deniability for Russia, recent events have forced the Kremlin to take direct responsibility for the Wagner Group. This development has impacted Putin's control and increased his attention to domestic dissent. The Prigozhin incident, where a Russian figure marched towards Moscow and pointed out flaws in the war, highlighted the sentiment of large sections of the Russian population who believe the war was a mistake but now want to win it. This has prompted Putin to focus on domestic issues and external propaganda to sway public opinion in his favor. Overall, the Wagner Group has influenced the state of play in the conflict and the subsequent impact on Russian and global politics.
Global South Perceptions and Impact on Support for Ukraine
The conflict in Ukraine and the recent events in the Middle East have raised concerns and questions among the global South. The perception that the United States supports Israel significantly while also being involved in the war in Ukraine has led to what-aboutism and questioning of Western policies. Countries in the global South, particularly in Africa, Latin America, and Asia, are skeptical of Ukraine's case and see it as just another European territorial dispute. The Ukrainian government's attempts to align themselves with the global South have not been successful, as the idea of European colonization does not resonate with these countries' experiences. The conflict's disruption of resources and the diversion of attention from other pressing issues further complicates support for Ukraine. In this context, the United States' credibility and leadership are at stake, impacting its ability to manage multiple crises and conflicts simultaneously.
Managing Global Crises and the Role of the United States
The ability of the United States to manage multiple global crises and conflicts depends on various factors. While the country may possess military and strategic capacity, domestic politics pose significant challenges. Domestic divisions, political friction, and the potential for government shutdowns hinder effective leadership and decision-making. Perception is also crucial, as the rest of the world evaluates US credibility and leadership based on domestic unity and resilience. The United States' handling of domestic issues and its ability to navigate geopolitical challenges affect global stability and its role in international affairs. Effective leadership and coherent strategies are needed to manage crises and conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and other regions, which are interconnected and have implications for US interests and global dynamics.
How is Russian President Vladimir Putin assessing the unfolding conflict in the Middle East? And how will that impact Western support for Ukraine?
Fiona Hill is just the person to ask. She’s advised both Democratic and Republican administrations on Russia policy and is currently a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
