Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 20, 2025
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May 20, 2025 
Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo, provides a deep dive into the current state of the US economy, highlighting recent data trends. He discusses the implications of tax cuts and their effects on fiscal policy, alongside potential risks in long-dated U.S. bonds. The conversation touches on growth challenges, inflation pressures, and evolving credit risks, urging caution in investment strategies. Slok's insights contextualize market behaviors, offering listeners a clearer picture of what's ahead in the economic landscape.
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Tax Bill Spurs Economic Growth
- The White House Council of Economic Advisers forecasts the tax bill will boost GDP by 4.2 to 5.2 percent and create 7 million jobs.
- It will increase take-home pay for a typical family of four by $8,000 to $13,000, highlighting the bill's growth potential.
Look Beyond Budget Scores
- Policymakers should consider growth effects beyond Congressional Budget Office (CBO) scoring methods when assessing deficit reduction.
- Factors such as tariffs, deregulation, and supply-side economics can reduce deficits but often aren't counted in traditional scores.
Inflation and Rates Outlook
- Inflation pressures are easing as core inflation hits its lowest level since March 2021.
- Supply-side economic measures are expected to further reduce interest rates to pre-COVID levels in the medium term.