15: The Chinese Economy Is Weaker than You Think (feat. Tom Duesterberg)
Dec 6, 2023
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Tom Duesterberg, a Hudson Senior Fellow, discusses China's economic weaknesses and proposes policy strategies, including export controls and ally collaborations. The podcast explores China's economic growth, geopolitical ambitions, hidden transactions, and impact on manufacturing.
China's economy is standing on fragile foundations and could be headed for a downturn due to internal weaknesses.
China's aggressive foreign policy, aimed at acquiring resources, disrupts global markets and poses geopolitical challenges.
Deep dives
China's Vulnerability to Economic Slowdown
The podcast discusses the vulnerability of China's economy and the possibility of an impending financial crisis. The guest, Thomas Dersterberg, argues that China's economy is weaker than commonly believed and lacks internal means to stimulate growth. He highlights the Chinese government's systematic undermining of global economic institutions and the negative impact on international trade. The country faces economic problems such as a real estate Ponzi scheme, overleveraging, and a debt-ridden government. Dersterberg suggests that China relies on financing from the West and trade surpluses to sustain its growth.
China's Aggressive Foreign Policy and Resource Accumulation
Another key point discussed is China's aggressive foreign policy, aiming to accumulate resources necessary for their export-driven economy. The focus is on acquiring oil, gas, and raw minerals in South Asia, Africa, Latin America, and other regions. This behavior has caused concerns among the US and its allies, as it disrupts global markets and poses geopolitical challenges. The podcast suggests the need for the US to push back against China's behavior by implementing export controls, maintaining tariffs, and strengthening partnerships to compete with China's exploitation of developing countries.
Implications for US Foreign Policy and Tools for Exerting Pressure
The podcast explores the implications of China's economic slowdown on US foreign policy. It questions the assumption that China's economic growth benefits the global economy and highlights the disillusionment among bipartisan US policymakers and international allies due to Chinese mercantilist behavior. The guest identifies various tools the US can use to exert pressure on China, including export controls, limiting sensitive technology acquisition, and imposing sanctions on Chinese banks involved in sanctions evasion and drug money laundering. However, the podcast also acknowledges the challenges of maintaining a balance between economic interdependence and confronting China's problematic economic practices.
There have always been skeptics of China's continued rise, and yet the Chinese Communist Party-led economy stills carries on. However, in a new report titled, "China’s Economic Weakness and Challenge to the Bretton Woods System: How Should the US Respond?" Hudson Senior Fellow Tom Duesterberg explains why the Chinese economy is now, more than ever, standing on fragile foundations and could be headed for a downturn.
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