FiveThirtyEight Politics
Has Harris Changed The Election For Black Voters?
Sep 19, 2024
Cheryl Laird, a Professor of Government and Politics, and Kiana Cox, a Senior researcher at Pew, delve into the shifting dynamics of Black voter support as the 2024 election nears. They discuss how Kamala Harris's candidacy is rekindling enthusiasm among Black voters, breaking patterns of loyalty to the Democratic Party. The conversation also explores generational divides, economic influences, and the complex relationship between race, gender, and political engagement, highlighting the significant role of identity in shaping voter attitudes.
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Quick takeaways
- Recent polling indicates a significant shift in Black voter support, with younger voters showing increasing favorability towards Republican candidates like Trump.
- Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign strategy, focusing more on qualifications than identity, aims to broaden her appeal among diverse voter demographics.
Deep dives
Political Realignment Among Black Voters
Recent polling indicates a noteworthy shift in political affiliations among Black voters, particularly with a significant drop in Democratic identification. Data from Gallup revealed the lowest rates of Black Americans identifying as Democrats since 1999, raising questions about potential realignment. In the context of the presidential election, former President Trump was reported to receive approximately 20% support from Black voters, which could represent the highest support for a Republican candidate in modern polling history. This trend highlights the evolving dynamics of Black voter behavior, notably in comparison to previous elections dominated by support for Democratic candidates.
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