FiveThirtyEight Politics

Has Harris Changed The Election For Black Voters?

Sep 19, 2024
Cheryl Laird, a Professor of Government and Politics, and Kiana Cox, a Senior researcher at Pew, delve into the shifting dynamics of Black voter support as the 2024 election nears. They discuss how Kamala Harris's candidacy is rekindling enthusiasm among Black voters, breaking patterns of loyalty to the Democratic Party. The conversation also explores generational divides, economic influences, and the complex relationship between race, gender, and political engagement, highlighting the significant role of identity in shaping voter attitudes.
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INSIGHT

Shifting Black Voter Landscape

  • Black voters' Democratic identification dropped to its lowest since 1999, with some polls showing Trump at 20% support.
  • This raised concerns about a potential political realignment, particularly given Biden's declining approval ratings.
INSIGHT

Biden's Electability Concerns

  • Biden's image and perceived electability were questioned, particularly after the June debate.
  • Concerns about his age and policy positions, coupled with external events, contributed to this perception.
INSIGHT

Harris's Impact and Generational Divide

  • Harris improved Democrats' standing among Black voters, but not to pre-Biden-Harris levels.
  • Younger Black men show higher support for Trump than other demographics, raising questions.
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