Economist Greg Jericho discusses the challenges of managing inflation in Australia, emphasizing the risks of a rate rise in the current economic climate. He explores the impact of 'sticky' inflation on demand and delves into what policymakers can do to address the issue.
Stable but 'sticky' inflation at 3.5-3.6% prompts concern among economists, highlighting the importance of maintaining balance to prevent a deep recession.
Rising prices impact consumer behavior, leading to a shift towards cheaper products despite stable inflation rates, raising questions about the effectiveness of interest rate adjustments.
Deep dives
Inflation Trends and Concerns
Inflation rates have been hovering around 3.5% to 3.6%, leading to concerns among economists despite being stable. The concept of 'sticky' inflation, where prices neither rise nor fall significantly, has emerged. The Reserve Bank's inflation target of 2-3% is viewed as arbitrary, with discussions on whether a slight decrease to 2.9% would significantly improve the situation. Economists are analyzing if inflation is stabilizing or accelerating, as stable inflation is crucial for economic health.
Retail Spending Behavior and Its Impact
Retail spending has only increased by 1.3% despite a 3.6% rise in prices, indicating that people are buying less. Consumers are shifting towards cheaper products due to increased prices, affecting overall retail trends. Rising prices in services, like hairdressing, contribute to inflation, but the focus on average prices can obscure the real struggles faced by households.
Interest Rates and Economic Outlook
There are mixed views on whether the Reserve Bank should adjust interest rates in response to the current inflation scenario. While some advocate for rate hikes to control spending, others argue that households are already cutting back on non-essential purchases due to financial constraints. With stagnant retail figures and limited spending, interest rate adjustments may not be a practical solution to address inflation concerns.
Inflation isn’t falling as fast as most economists want, but a rate rise now would do more harm than good, says Greg Jericho.
With interest rates refusing to fall below three per cent, some analysts are making dire assessments of the Australia economy. But while so-called ‘sticky’ inflation isn’t great, it’s better than risking a huge drop in demand and a deep recession, according to Greg Jericho. On this episode, Greg examines why inflation is refusing to budge and what policymakers can do about it.
Greg Jericho is Chief Economist at the Australia Institute and the Centre for Future Work and popular columnist of Grogonomics with Guardian Australia. Each week on Dollars & Sense, Greg dives into the latest economic figures to explain what they can tell us about what’s happening in the economy, how it will impact you and where things are headed.
We’d love to hear your feedback on this series, so send in your questions, comments or suggestions for future episodes to podcasts@australiainstitute.org.au.