Sir Niall Ferguson decodes Trump, China, and the new world order

Published in 1949, '1984' is a cautionary tale by George Orwell that explores the dangers of totalitarianism. The novel is set in a dystopian future where the world is divided into three super-states, with the protagonist Winston Smith living in Oceania, ruled by the mysterious and omnipotent leader Big Brother. Winston works at the Ministry of Truth, where he rewrites historical records to conform to the Party's ever-changing narrative. He begins an illicit love affair with Julia and starts to rebel against the Party, but they are eventually caught and subjected to brutal torture and indoctrination. The novel highlights themes of government surveillance, manipulation of language and history, and the suppression of individual freedom and independent thought.

In 'Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe', Niall Ferguson delves into the global history of disasters, analyzing why humanity consistently fails to prepare for catastrophes. The book covers a wide range of disasters, from pandemics and earthquakes to financial crises and wars, and argues that many disasters have man-made components. Ferguson critiques the responses of developed countries to the COVID-19 pandemic and highlights the role of bureaucratic failures and complex systems in exacerbating disasters. The book draws on various fields such as economics, epidemiology, and network science to offer a general theory of disasters and suggests ways to improve future responses to crises.

In 'Colossus,' Niall Ferguson argues that the United States is the most powerful empire the world has ever seen, both militarily and economically. He compares the U.S. to the British Empire, noting that both aspire to globalize free markets, the rule of law, and representative government. However, Ferguson contends that Americans shy away from the long-term commitments of manpower and money necessary to effectively manage and transform rogue regimes and failed states. He describes the U.S. as an empire with an attention deficit disorder, imposing unrealistic timescales on its overseas interventions and refusing to acknowledge its global responsibilities. The book warns of the negative consequences of this chronic myopia, both domestically and internationally, and suggests that the eventual collapse of this empire may come from within due to its internal weaknesses.