MAGA's War Over the War with Iran (w/ Curt Mills) [Teaser]

Jun 27, 2025

The discussion delves into Trump's 'America First' foreign policy and its impact on U.S. dealings with Iran. It highlights the internal conflict within the MAGA movement following the Israel-Iran tensions. Key questions arise about Trump's motivations for striking Iran and the influences shaping his decisions. The conversation also touches on the broader implications of restraint versus interventionism in American politics and the longstanding repercussions of these choices on future foreign policy.

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INSIGHT

Nuclear Deal Disrupted by Assassinations

Trump was about to sign a nuclear deal with Iran before its negotiator was targeted for assassination.
This action disrupted the deal and escalated tensions dramatically within days.

INSIGHT

Restrainers' Influence Yet Bombing Occurs

MAGA restrainers initially gained strong positions in the administration to prevent reckless actions.
Despite staffing strengths, the decision to bomb Iran still occurred, surprising many.

INSIGHT

Interest Groups and Media Shaped Trump's Iran Policy

An interest group aligned with Israeli and MIC aims pressured Trump toward regime change in Iran.
Trump's media consumption and finances influenced his pro-intervention stance despite prior restraint.

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Donald Trump's rise in U.S. politics over the past decade has been inextricable from his "America First" foreign policy and withering criticisms of the Iraq War, nation building, and both the neoconservatism that led the Republican Party to disaster during George W. Bush's presidency and the Washington establishment that still thought America could police the world. Trump's message of a restrained foreign policy and pledge to avoid getting dragged into forever wars especially seemed to resonate as he ran to take back the presidency in 2024—there was no end in sight to the war between Ukraine and Russia, and Israel was committing genocide in Gaza as Bibi Netanyahu walked all over an exhausted, only occasionally lucid Biden.

But less than half a year into President Trump's second term and the failure negotiations with Iran, Israel bombed that country's nuclear facilities and assassinated their negotiators and nuclear scientists—and just over a week later, so did Trump when he ordered the dropping of massive "bunker buster" bombs to try to destroy the nuclear facilities Israel could not.

In this episode, we once again talk to executive editor of The American Conservative, Curt Mills, a leading voice of the restraint and realism wing on the right, to try to understand the war within MAGA set off by the "Twelve Day War" with Iran. Why did Trump bomb Iran? Who was he listening to, or not, as he made that decision? How did the various factions within the MAGA movement respond, and what is the state of play currently in Trump World? What was Israel's role in all this? And how much longer will Trump tolerate Netanyahu's constant efforts to get the American military to fight in Israel's wars? We take up these questions, and more.

Sources:

Ian Ward, "The MAGA Split Over Israel," Politico, June 13, 2025

Joe Gould, et al, "MAGA Largely Falls in Line on Trump’s Iran Strikes," Politico, June 21, 2025

Katy Balls, "Trump is Taking Fire Over 'Forever Wars,' but MAGA’s Real Battle Awaits," The Times of London, June 22, 2025

Jude Russo, "What Next?" The American Conservative, June 24, 2025

Sohrab Ahmari, "Did Iran win the 12-day war?" Unherd, June 25, 2025