The podcast discusses the shocking murder within Putin's circle, the potential risks posed by the private military company Wagner, Putin's broken promises and its implications on the regime, as well as the decay and instability of Putin's system. They highlight the importance of trust and loyalty, predict a dramatic change in the system, and emphasize the need for support on their platforms and Patreon.
46:01
AI Summary
AI Chapters
Episode notes
auto_awesome
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
Putin's broken promise to Yevgeny Prigogine undermines trust and loyalty, leading to potential infighting within the system.
The killing of Prigogine turns him into a subversive myth, fueling anti-Putin sentiment and posing a significant threat to the regime.
Deep dives
Putin's Broken Promises and Threats to the Regime
Putin's broken promise to Yevgeny Prigogine and his subsequent actions undermine the trust and loyalty within the Putin system. This is deeply corrosive to a system that relies on understandings and promises among insiders. The inconsistency in Putin's actions demonstrates his inability to manage the system effectively, as seen in his handling of the Prigogine mutiny. This creates an atmosphere of fear and suspicion, leading to potential witch hunts and infighting within the regime. Moreover, the killing of Prigogine turns him into a subversive myth, fueling the narrative that it is patriotic to be anti-Putin. This poses a significant threat to the regime and further fractures the loyalty within its ranks.
Implications of Putin's Changing Mind
Putin's changing stance towards Yevgeny Prigogine raises questions about his ability to maintain his promises and manage his own system. This undermines the informal understandings and rules of the game that the Putin system relies on. The act of breaking a promise to an insider has significant repercussions, risking the credibility and trust within the regime. It also highlights Putin's inconsistent approach to governance and the increasing difficulty he faces in managing the rivalries and factions within the system.
Creating an Open Season for Vengeance
The killing of Yevgeny Prigogine may lead to widespread vengeance and further purges within the regime. This creates a corrosive atmosphere of fear and suspicion, where individuals may exploit the situation to settle personal scores or eliminate enemies. The heightened state of paranoia and mutual suspicion could trigger a cycle of witch hunts, resulting in further instability within the regime.
The Rise of Anti-Putin Patriotism
The killing of Yevgeny Prigogine fuels the narrative that being anti-Putin is patriotic. By portraying Prigogine as a betrayed hero, a powerful myth is created that undermines support for the regime. This myth has the potential to resonate with individuals who are disillusioned with the system and see Prigogine as a symbol of heroic resistance against bureaucratic corruption. As this myth evolves, it may pose a genuine threat to the regime's stability.
What can we say about the death of Prigozhin (beyond good riddance?). At the risk of overstating the case, I feel this is a watershed moment, and Putin's willingness to turn on his own, at the expense of his own promises, is both symptomatic of deep decay in the system and also something that will further undermine it.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.