Munk Dialogue with Michael Weiss: how Assad's fall is reshaping the Middle East
Dec 10, 2024
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In this discussion, Michael Weiss, an investigative journalist known for his expertise in Syria and Ukraine, dissects the seismic fallout of Assad's regime collapse. He highlights the potential chaos reminiscent of Libya and Iraq as rebel forces gain ground. Weiss discusses the shifting alliances among regional powers like Iran, Turkey, and Israel, emphasizing the rising tensions and geostrategic maneuvers. He also critiques Western intervention and the pressing need for humanitarian aid, shedding light on the aspirations of the Syrian people for a better future.
The swift downfall of Assad's regime highlights the precarious power dynamics in Syria, raising concerns about the potential for chaos akin to Libya and Iraq.
The emergence of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a significant player post-Assad poses complex questions about future governance and the risk of renewed conflict.
Deep dives
The Collapse of Assad's Regime
The rapid downfall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria has been shocking, revealing a previously underestimated weakness within the Syrian Arab Army. The lack of resistance during critical advances by rebel groups made it evident that Assad's hold on power was precarious, leading to widespread jubilation among those who suffered under his brutal rule. This swift transformation raises fears that Syria could devolve into chaos similar to that seen in Libya and Iraq, where sectarian violence and insurgencies plagued the region. Observers are left questioning the stability of the newfound freedom and the potential for rival factions to fill the power vacuum left by Assad.
The Role of HTS and Regional Dynamics
Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former Al-Qaeda affiliate, has emerged as a significant player in the shifting landscape of Syria, capitalizing on the regime's collapse. Initially seen as isolated, HTS has begun to engage in state-building efforts and has expressed intentions to govern inclusively, though skepticism remains regarding their past human rights abuses. Turkey's involvement has been pivotal in providing support to HTS while simultaneously seeking to address its national security concerns regarding Kurdish groups along its border. The interplay between these factions poses questions about their long-term viability and the risk of renewed conflict, given HTS's still tenuous grip on power.
Iran and Russia's Strategic Calculations
Iran and Russia, both crucial allies of Assad, have been taken aback by the rapid deterioration of the Syrian regime, forcing them to reevaluate their strategies in the region. Faced with the prospect of losing influence and resources, neither state appears willing to expend significant military efforts to salvage the situation, fearing that a protracted conflict could threaten their own regimes. As a result, both countries are exploring new diplomatic engagements with emerging powers in Syria, like HTS, which underscores a departure from their previous positions. This shift signals a potential realignment of power dynamics in the region as key players navigate the evolving landscape.
Implications for International Relations
The collapse of Assad's regime invites a host of repercussions for international relations, especially concerning Israel and the United States. Israel now faces uncertainty as a weakened Assad was previously seen as a manageable adversary, while the emergence of HTS as a potential new threat complicates their security calculus. For the U.S., the situation reflects past mistakes of intervention and non-intervention, with many calling for a more humanitarian-focused approach going forward. As the region grapples with the fallout, there are urgent discussions about how to assist the Syrian people while cautiously navigating the risks posed by lingering extremist elements.
Bashar al-Assad has fled to Russia. Rebel leaders have taken over Damascus. And hundreds of thousands of refugees from the country’s long civil war are making their way back home.
And while many in Syria and around the world are rejoicing at the downfall of Assad and his brutal regime, there are growing concerns that the country could go the way of Libya, Yemen, and Iraq, where insurgent groups and sectarian strife have wreaked havoc on the civilian population and created failed states, which in the case of Syria, could threaten to further destabilize an already volatile Middle East.
And beyond Syria, how does Assad’s regime collapse affect broader conflicts and regional powers like Iran, Israel, Russia, the U.S. and Turkey?
To make sense of this moment, and the seismic changes taking place, we are joined by Michael Weiss. Michael is an investigative journalist who focuses on international affairs, specifically the wars in Syria and Ukraine. His understanding of this region and its players gives him a unique insight into this rapidly evolving situation.
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