The Macro Trading Floor Cracks In The US Labor Market - What Next?
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Sep 6, 2025 The discussion kicks off with a dive into the U.S. labor market, revealing a concerning jobs report and its potential repercussions. Alf and Brent analyze the complexities of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and how it can guide trading strategies. They reflect on historical Fed actions and their impact on unemployment, all while contrasting current economic trends in the U.S. and Canada. Humorously, they acknowledge the challenges of recording from afar, mixing in gratitude for their audience's support.
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Consistent Weakness In US Payrolls
- U.S. payrolls have trended down consistently, suggesting a genuine slowdown rather than a one-off blip.
- Brent and Alf view five months of weak job creation (after typical revisions) as hard to ignore for markets.
Data Shifting Market Narratives
- The labor data's consistency shifts Brent from apologist to more cautious, raising stall-speed growth concerns.
- Market reaction shows mixed signals where some risk assets popped then reversed, reflecting uncertainty.
Hedge Fund PMs Underinvested In Bonds
- Alf recounts speaking to macro PMs who were underweight bonds and FX hedges despite fearing slowdown.
- He highlights a common industry bias against owning long-duration assets today.
