Bloomberg Surveillance
Surveillance: JPM's Michele on the Fed
Sep 28, 2023
Bob Michele, JP Morgan Asset Management Global Head of Fixed Income says the Fed won't go to 5.75% - 6% rates. Nadia Lovell, UBS Global Wealth Management Senior US Equity Strategist says the earnings recession is over. Ed Mills, Raymond James Washington Policy Analyst weighs in on a looming government shutdown. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Co-Founder and Head of Research shares her outlook for oil prices.
36:35
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Quick takeaways
- Crude oil prices are starting to drive the macro view, becoming more inelastic with higher prices not significantly impacting consumption.
- The oil industry faces challenges in terms of investment due to societal and governmental pressures favoring renewable energy and ESG concerns, creating uncertainty for its future development plans.
Deep dives
Crude oil fundamentals driving the macro view
Crude oil prices are no longer driven solely by macroeconomic factors, but are now starting to drive the macro view. The market is tight, with low inventory levels and high demand. While there is uncertainty in the bond and currency markets, oil prices have held up well. Oil demand appears to be becoming more inelastic, with higher prices not significantly impacting consumption. There is a concern about the lack of investment in the industry due to societal and governmental pressures. A supply gap is expected in the medium term, as there are not enough projects in the pipeline.
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