Bob Michele, JP Morgan Asset Management Global Head of Fixed Income says the Fed won't go to 5.75% - 6% rates. Nadia Lovell, UBS Global Wealth Management Senior US Equity Strategist says the earnings recession is over. Ed Mills, Raymond James Washington Policy Analyst weighs in on a looming government shutdown. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Co-Founder and Head of Research shares her outlook for oil prices.
Crude oil prices are starting to drive the macro view, becoming more inelastic with higher prices not significantly impacting consumption.
The oil industry faces challenges in terms of investment due to societal and governmental pressures favoring renewable energy and ESG concerns, creating uncertainty for its future development plans.
Deep dives
Crude oil fundamentals driving the macro view
Crude oil prices are no longer driven solely by macroeconomic factors, but are now starting to drive the macro view. The market is tight, with low inventory levels and high demand. While there is uncertainty in the bond and currency markets, oil prices have held up well. Oil demand appears to be becoming more inelastic, with higher prices not significantly impacting consumption. There is a concern about the lack of investment in the industry due to societal and governmental pressures. A supply gap is expected in the medium term, as there are not enough projects in the pipeline.
Potential for higher oil prices
While it is difficult to predict exact price levels, there is the possibility for oil prices to continue rising. The market is currently tight, with low inventory levels and high demand. Concerns about investment and societal pressures restrict supply growth. However, an event like a supply shock could lead to even higher prices. Breaking technical levels could lead to a run-up towards $100 per barrel, and further upside potential exists depending on demand dynamics.
Saudi Arabia's stance on production cuts
Saudi Arabia is maintaining its position on production cuts, with Prince Abdulaziz wanting to ensure that inventories do not build up. The current cuts have been extended through the end of the year, as the kingdom remains cautious about the global economy and the macro concerns. The November OPEC meeting in Vienna will provide further insight into Saudi Arabia's stance on production and supply dynamics.
Impact of societal pressures on oil industry investment
The oil industry faces challenges in terms of investment due to societal and governmental pressures favoring renewable energy and ESG concerns. While oil prices are at high levels, the lack of support from Western governments limits the ability of oil and gas companies to invest. The focus remains on transitioning to cleaner energy sources, creating uncertainty for the oil industry's future investment and development plans.
Bob Michele, JP Morgan Asset Management Global Head of Fixed Income says the Fed won't go to 5.75% - 6% rates. Nadia Lovell, UBS Global Wealth Management Senior US Equity Strategist says the earnings recession is over. Ed Mills, Raymond James Washington Policy Analyst weighs in on a looming government shutdown. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Co-Founder and Head of Research shares her outlook for oil prices.