Bitcoin Breaks $40,000, What Next? | Quinn Thompson
Dec 6, 2023
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Quinn Thompson, Head of Capital Markets & Growth at Maple Finance, discusses Bitcoin outlook into 2024, macro outlook for 2024, Bitcoins huge 2023 rally to $44,000 & the next crypto bull market. Also explores real rates and bond market dynamics, fiscal vs monetary focus, impact of fiscal stimulus, dollar yen exchange rate, factors driving Bitcoin's performance, rise of Bitcoin, opportunities and strategies in the crypto market.
Quinn Thompson predicts a shift from a monetary dominant to a fiscal dominant environment, with government liquidity injections reducing real interest rates over time.
Crypto equities, like Coinbase and Bitcoin miners, have gained operational leverage through cost-cutting measures, resulting in significant profitability with even slight price increases.
Bitcoin's potential as a safe haven asset and its attractiveness compared to gold lie in its volatility, growth potential, and its positioning as a leader in the cryptocurrency market.
Deep dives
Key Point 1: The importance of macro views and fiscal dominance
Quinn Thompson discusses the shift from a monetary dominant environment to a fiscal dominant environment in the past few years. He highlights the impact of fiscal spending on the economy and the role of real interest rates. Thompson believes that real rates will come down over time as the government is required to add liquidity in certain situations.
Key Point 2: The role of operational leverage in crypto equities
Thompson emphasizes the operational leverage that crypto equities, such as Coinbase and Bitcoin miners, have gained through cost-cutting measures and increased efficiency. He explains how even a slight uptick in prices can result in significant profitability for these lean and efficient companies.
Key Point 3: The potential of miners as call options and their value proposition
Thompson describes miners as call options on the forward production of Bitcoin. He highlights their value proposition, which includes the asset value based on Bitcoin prices, the potential for multiple increases in asset value, and their embedded call option on future production. Thompson also discusses the benefit of rising volatility for miners and how high inflation dampens downside volatility while increasing upside volatility for assets like gold and Bitcoin.
Bitcoin and Gold as Safe Haven Assets
Bitcoin and gold are both seen as safe haven assets during periods of economic uncertainty. While gold has historically been a traditional hedge against negative real rates, Bitcoin's ability to behave like a digital gold and offer potential upside has made it an attractive option for those looking to escape financial oppression. The speaker notes that in extreme liquidity events, gold can still experience significant drops in value, whereas Bitcoin's volatility and potential for growth make it a more appealing choice. Overall, in this macro-driven cycle, Bitcoin is positioned as a leader in the cryptocurrency market.
The Role of Retail Investors and the Bitcoin ETF
The discussion touches on the potential impact of retail investors and the impending approval of a Bitcoin ETF on the cryptocurrency market. While retail participation has not yet returned to previous levels, the anticipation of a Bitcoin ETF could draw in retail investors. However, the speaker points out that if retail enters the market just before the ETF approval, it could be a signal for caution as it may indicate a market top. The speaker also mentions the importance of tracking metrics such as stablecoin inflows, Coinbase app downloads, and trading volumes to gauge the return of retail investors. Additionally, the conversation highlights the potential for more crypto equities IPOs, which could further impact the relative performance of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies, with Solana being highlighted as a promising ecosystem with significant potential for growth.
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On today’s episode, Quinn Thompson Head of Capital Markets & Growth at Maple Finance joins the show to discuss his Bitcoin outlook into 2024. We deep dive into the macro outlook for 2024, Bitcoins huge 2023 rally to $44,000 & the next crypto bull market. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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