RiskReversal Pod

The Mullet Portfolio with Cameron Dawson of NewEdge Wealth

Apr 15, 2025

Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, shares her keen insights on the current financial landscape. She discusses the precarious balance of high market valuations and the risks of multiple compression. The conversation dives into the implications of tariffs, economic data interpretation, and the potential effects on growth and inflation. Cameron also highlights strategies for navigating market volatility, introducing the 'mullet portfolio' concept that blends defensive and high-beta investments for a well-rounded approach.

44:18

Episode guests

Cameron Dawson

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Quick takeaways

The podcast highlights concerns about high market valuations, indicating that limited room for error may lead to significant downturns.

The discussion emphasizes the challenges of tariffs on economic stability, stressing their potential long-term impacts on growth and consumer sentiment.

Deep dives

Market Expectations and Economic Outlook

The current market sentiment is characterized by high expectations amid concerns about potential downturns. Analysts emphasize the risks associated with being priced for perfection, leaving little room for negative surprises. The likelihood of a sideways market trend is predicted, with possible corrections as new data emerges. Economic indicators suggest that the anticipated optimism may not materialize, particularly as earnings estimates have been trimmed downward.

Intro

2min

Market Outlook and Economic Dynamics

23min

The Complexity of Trade Deficits and Policy Approaches

2min

Market Volatility and Economic Recovery Insights

4min

Navigating Uncertainty in the Job Market

8min

Navigating Market Volatility: The Mullet Portfolio Strategy

5min

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In this episode of the Risk Reversal podcast, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, to discuss a range of timely financial and economic topics. They begin by reflecting on Cameron's market outlook for 2025, noting how high valuations and investor optimism have left little room for error, and how recent market volatility may signal a shift toward a more downward trend. The conversation covers the risks of multiple compression, the cyclical nature of major tech stocks, and the challenges of interpreting economic data—especially as soft data weakens and the potential impact of tariffs looms. They analyze the effects of recent and proposed tariffs, debating their purposes (negotiation, manufacturing reorientation, or revenue generation) and their likely consequences for growth, inflation, and consumers. The discussion also delves into the volatility in bond and currency markets, concerns about foreign holders of U.S. debt, and the implications of central bank gold buying. The hosts consider the Federal Reserve’s policy options in the face of stagflation and political pressures and speculate on the risks to Fed independence. Finally, they explore sector strategies for navigating volatility, the importance of a long-term investment perspective, and the potential for both defensive and high-beta stocks to play a role in portfolios during uncertain times.

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