1418 - Rent Prices Are “Guaranteed” to Increase Over the Next Two Years—Here’s Why by Jeff Vasishta
Sep 1, 2024
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Barry Sternlicht, the CEO of Starwood Capital, shares insights on the real estate market, emphasizing the projected rise in rental prices over the next two years. He discusses the construction of 600,000 apartments this year, addressing the impact of rising rents on both landlords and cash-strapped tenants. The conversation also highlights the demand for housing despite interest rate increases and identifies investment opportunities in suburban areas and college towns, all while noting challenges in the luxury rental sector.
Rising rent prices are driven by high demand and insufficient new apartment construction amidst a financially strained tenant landscape.
Smaller investors can find profitable opportunities in suburban areas and college towns, despite competition from large rental developments.
Deep dives
Rising Rent Prices and Housing Market Outlook
Rent prices are expected to continue increasing due to a combination of factors, including high interest rates and a stagnant real estate market. The construction of new apartments is projected to be insufficient to meet growing demand, particularly when apartments offer a more affordable option compared to owning a home. Recent data reflects this trend, showing that while rents rose 30.4% from 2019 to 2023, wages only increased by 20%. This dynamic highlights the financial strain facing tenants, particularly in high-demand urban areas, while landlords may benefit from a steady demand for rental units.
Shifting Trends in Rental Markets
There is a growing disparity between rental prices across different market sectors, with high-end luxury apartments experiencing drops in rent due to increased supply. Reports indicate that landlords in cities like Austin are offering significant discounts, such as two months of free rent, to attract tenants as inventory rises. Conversely, average-priced rents continue to increase, creating a challenging environment for smaller investors competing with larger, amenity-rich developments. The changing preferences of millennials, who are increasingly opting for flexible rental arrangements over homeownership, further complicate the landscape for investors.
Opportunities for Smaller Investors
Despite the challenges presented by rising rates and competition from large rental developments, opportunities exist for smaller investors, particularly in suburban areas. Properties that remain priced below the average for newer constructions can attract average earners and families looking for housing options. Furthermore, college towns are increasingly popular rental markets, illustrated by record enrollment at institutions like the University of Arkansas, indicating strong demand. Smaller landlords focusing on these suburban markets can leverage the lack of available buildable space in established urban areas to find profitable investments.
For landlords feeling the pinch of high interest rates or would-be investors wondering how they can cash flow, there’s some good news: Rents will continue to rise. However, for rent-burdened tenants, the outlook is not so rosy.
“We’re gonna build 600,000 apartments this year,” Barry Sternlicht, CEO of Starwood Capital, an investment firm specializing in hotels and market-rate multifamily housing, said recently on CNBC about America’s construction of apartments, “and 400,000 the year after and 230,000 the year after that.”