The New Yorker Radio Hour

The Presidential Race Is in Uncharted Territory, but It’s Clear Who’s Winning

Jul 19, 2024
CNN data journalist Harry Enten discusses the unprecedented movement to persuade President Biden to drop out, the shocking moments in the election season, and the declining support for Biden in key swing states. The podcast explores the impact of an assassination attempt on a presidential race, the polling shift post-debate, the intricacies of polling methodologies, and the importance of polls in shaping campaign strategies.
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ANECDOTE

Assassination Attempts and Their Impact

  • Following a recent assassination attempt on Donald Trump, Clare Malone and Harry Enten discussed its potential impact on the election.
  • They compared it to the attempt on Teddy Roosevelt's life in 1912 and Ronald Reagan's in 1981, noting the current polarized political climate.
INSIGHT

Swing State vs. National Polls

  • National polls didn't shift much after Biden's poor debate performance, but swing state polls showed a decline in his support.
  • This suggests that despite national perceptions, Biden's standing is weakening in key areas.
INSIGHT

Shifting Independent Voters

  • Independent voters, particularly younger and Hispanic demographics, are shifting towards Trump.
  • This movement is crucial, given that independents are a significant voting bloc.
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