How I Invest with David Weisburd

E279: Why Size Becomes the Enemy of Venture Returns w/Logan Allin

13 snips
Jan 9, 2026
Guest
Logan Allin
In this discussion, Logan Allin, Founder and Managing Partner of Fin Capital, dives into the changing landscape of venture capital. He highlights how a lack of liquidity disrupts the industry's cycle and why secondaries are overtaking traditional IPOs. Logan argues that larger fund sizes often reduce returns and warns against the risks of retail capital in venture. He also shares insights on contrarian investing and the significance of focusing on the orchestration layer in AI, emphasizing the need for diligence and structural alpha in tough markets.
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INSIGHT

Liquidity Is The Engine Of Venture

  • Venture breaks when liquidity evaporates because the asset class relies on a virtuous liquidity circle.
  • Companies staying private longer and more dry powder in secondaries shift returns into private markets.
ADVICE

Harvest Gains With Late‑Stage Secondaries

  • Use secondaries as a deliberate risk-management tool to harvest gains and return capital to LPs.
  • Target late-stage pre-IPO secondaries where discounts and bid-ask spreads create margin-of-safety opportunities.
ADVICE

Underwrite Secondaries Like Primary Deals

  • Do deep valuation work for secondaries including waterfall and capitalization-structure math.
  • Require company information and third‑party opinions to secure a strong margin of safety.
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