Constance Hunter, Chief Economist at EIU, shares her insights on inflation trends and the labor market's current state. Rebecca Patterson, former Chief Investment Strategist at Bridgewater, delves into how market trends are unfolding amidst economic uncertainty. Huw van Steenis from Oliver Wyman discusses the outlook for private credit and the evolving banking landscape. The trio also tackles significant topics including the credibility of U.S. inflation data and the geopolitical tensions surrounding Ukraine, emphasizing their impact on global economic dynamics.
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insights INSIGHT
Services Stickiness Keeps Inflation Elevated
Services inflation is elevated and sticky, while goods inflation has recently picked up, pushing overall CPI higher.
Constance Hunter expects three-month annualized inflation to fall to ~2.1-2.3% by late Q2/Q3 next year.
insights INSIGHT
Labor Weakness, Not CPI Alone, Will Trigger Cuts
EIU expects the Fed to cut starting in September if the labor market weakens despite inflation prints.
Cuts depend on clear confirmation of labor-market deterioration, not just a one-off CPI move.
insights INSIGHT
Small Monthly Moves Amplify Annual Inflation
Small monthly CPI moves matter for annualized rates and consumer psychology when frequent purchases rise.
Rising rents and used-car inflation feed through and complicate Fed easing plans.
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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyAugust 12th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Constance Hunter, Chief Economist at EIU and Rebecca Patterson, former Chief Investment Strategist at Bridgewater, react to CPI and discusses weakening US labor data, as well as President Trump naming EJ Antoni the new BLS chief. Despite economists concerned about the potential for rising inflation, Wall Street firms, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley, expect investors to focus on strong corporate earnings and interest-rate cuts, according to Andrew Tyler and Mike Wilson. 2) Ethan Harris, former Head of Global Economic Research at Bank of America, talks about CPI and the reliability of American economic data with a new BLS chief. President Trump wrote that Antoni will ensure that the numbers released are "HONEST and ACCURATE", and Steve Bannon called Antoni "the perfect guy at the perfect time to run the BLS." Erica Groshen said that what worries her is that the nominee and his work are not well known in the business, academic or public service communities, and Jason Furman said that Antoni is "completely unqualified" to lead BLS. 3) Kira Rudik, Member of Parliament for the Ukrainian government, on the war in Ukraine, President Trump's summit with Vladimir Putin in Alaska this Friday, and the scheduled call between President Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskiy and other European leaders on Wednesday. President Trump is downplaying expectations for his upcoming meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, calling it a "feel-out meeting." 4) Huw van Steenis, Partner at Oliver Wyman, discusses private credit outlook and the enablement of retirement savings to invest in private assets. 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a Wall Street Journal on salaries and Bloomberg's reporting on Taylor Swift's album announcement.
Bloomberg Surveillance 