Join economist Dr. Orphe Divounguy as he discusses upcoming economic data releases like Q1 GDP, jobless claims, pending home sales, PCE data, and consumer sentiment. Explore forecasts for Q1 2024, housing market trends, and the impact of inflation on consumer sentiment.
Anticipate higher GDP growth driven by looser financial conditions and robust consumer activity.
Potential increase in initial jobless claims signals a cooling labor market influenced by market fluctuations.
Deep dives
Analysis of Q1 GDP
The forecast for Q1 GDP stands at 2.2%, slightly lower than the prior quarter's 3.4%. Expectations suggest looser financial conditions driving higher than expected GDP growth, with stronger consumer activity, including retail sales and housing market rebound, contributing to a positive outlook. The anticipation is for GDP in Q1 to surpass the consensus estimate of 2.5%.
Insights on Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims are expected to slightly increase, with the median forecast at 215,000. This uptick could indicate a cooling labor market and potential impact from recent market fluctuations, such as declining S&P 500 and increasing yields. The shift may result in a moderation of hiring and a rise in unemployment claims compared to the previous week.
Anticipating Pending Home Sales
Pending home sales are predicted to rise, fueled by the spring housing season and increased activity in new listings. Analysts foresee a positive trend in home sales despite concerns over rising mortgage rates, providing more options for buyers but potentially slowing market activity. The current dynamics include higher supply alongside challenges posed by increased mortgage rates.
Join economist Dr. Orphe Divounguy and Chris Krug as they discuss economic data being released this week and what to expect on this episode of Everyday Economics! Everyday Economics is an unrehearsed, free-flow discussion of the economic news shaping the day. The thoughts expressed by the hosts are theirs, unedited, and not necessarily the views of their respective organizations.