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Global FX: Surveying the FX landscape ahead of the US election
Nov 1, 2024
The discussion centers on how the upcoming US election could shift the dynamics of foreign exchange markets. Strategists examine potential scenarios, including a Republican sweep and its likely impact on the dollar. Predictions for key currency pairs are highlighted, with particular insights into the Australian dollar amid China-related uncertainties. The conversation also dives into the state of the GBP post-budget announcement and the effects of recent economic concerns, including fluctuations in guilt yields.
20:00
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Quick takeaways
- The podcast emphasizes that a Republican sweep may lead to a 5% increase in the broad dollar, while different outcomes will adjust the dollar's value accordingly.
- Market expectations concerning the election significantly influence currency pricing, reflecting a heightened sensitivity and increased volatility in FX markets.
Deep dives
Election Scenarios and Dollar Projections
The podcast outlines various election scenarios and their potential impact on the dollar's value. In the case of a Republican sweep, a 5% increase in the broad dollar is anticipated, with specific targets for euro dollar at parity to 102 and dollar yen possibly reaching 160. If there's a Republican victory with a split Congress, a smaller upward adjustment of 1.5 to 2% in the dollar's value is expected, mainly due to trade dynamics. Conversely, for a Democratic victory with a split Congress, a trend of dollar selling is predicted, with estimates suggesting euro dollar could move between 112 to 114.
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Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode