The Most Uncertain Macro Outlook in Years | Michael Kao

Markets are caught in one of the most uncertain macro environments in years. With Trump’s disrupting policies, conflicting economic signals, volatile energy markets, and Federal Reserve uncertainty, investors are struggling to determine the right playbook. Michael Kao joins Maggie Lake to unpack what’s driving today’s macro confusion and where we might be headed next.

🔹 How should investors think about inflation, interest rates, and the bond market’s fragility?

🔹 Will Trump 2.0 impact global energy markets—and what does it mean for oil prices?

🔹 Is the Fed at risk of losing control of financial conditions?

🔹 What role will AI-driven disruption play in reshaping industries and capital markets?

Kao shares his insights on why macro is so difficult to read today, the shifting balance of power in global markets, and how investors can navigate a landscape where traditional models no longer seem to apply.

📊 Watch now for a nuanced discussion on markets, policy, and economic forces shaping the future.

Chapters:

1:18 - Macro Confusion! Does Macro Data Even Matter Anymore?

12:55 - Trump 2.0: Inflation Fighter or Fiscal Wild Card?

17:17 - Oil: The Linchpin of Everything

22:43 - Treasury Yields vs. The Dollar: Who Moves First?

26:12 - The Big Lever: Controlling the U.S. Bond Market

29:17 - Higher for Longer or a Deflationary Shift?

33:59 - The Knock-On Effects: Equities, Commodities, and Gold

39:21 - The Disruptor’s Dilemma: Trump, Markets, and Volatility

46:04 - The AI Boom: Productivity Miracle or Job Killer?

50:02 - The Biggest Risk for Investors Right Now

52:48 - Unplugging from the Markets: A Digital Detox

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